Well, that was frustrating once again. In a virtual rerun of the AFC Championship game in January 2023, Cincinnati fell to Kansas City 26-25 on the last play of Sunday’s game, thanks once more to a dubious penalty and a long field goal at the gun. While the earlier game was of course far more important, this one was a teeth-gnasher as well, in that Cincinnati clearly outplayed K.C. for the lion’s share of the game and lost due to a couple of self-inflicted wounds and a bailout by the refs.
It was, at least, pleasing to see the Bengals apparently heed my invocation to move forward and ignore the season-opening faceplant against the Patriots. They lost, yes, to fall to 0-2, but did so in a way that would seem to portend winning is comin’ round the bend.
Much national worry has been focused on the fact that of the 74 teams that started 0-2 since 2015, only eight (11 percent) have reached the playoffs. Of course, that ignores the fact that a) there is an extra game now to overcome the slow start; b) the Bengals were 0-2 in 2022 and were, as mentioned, a flea hair’s width from the Super Bowl; c) they were 0-2 last year and were cranking up for another deep run before Joe Burrow got injured; and d), most of those 0-2 teams didn’t have a QB of Burrow’s quality.
For all the worries stemming from Week 1, the overarching concern was that Burrow looked more like Aaron Burr than Joe Brrr. He was, arguably, the single biggest reason for the upset defeat. On Sunday in Missourah he was (mostly) back to his normal self, aided by solid protection and better play from his pass catchers not named Ja’Marr Chase (more on him later). The 23-36-258-2-0 stat line was good enough to win; the only real negative play was his backbreaking fumble while being sacked by a pair of Chiefs. His wrist looked fine, after a ridiculous week when people were in a tizzy over the way he picked up a water bottle.
Alas, it’s always tough when coming off a frustrating loss to have to wait an extra day to play again, but Cincinnati will not go until Monday night against the Commanders of Landover, Maryland. They won with seven, count ’em seven, field goals last week against the Giants to go 1-1 after being bludgeoned by Tampa in the opener. This one, like the Patriots game, is already being mentally tabbed as a W for the Bengals—the next four games on Cincinnati’s schedule are soft on paper, making the 0-2 start more survivable.
The Commanders aren’t nearly the threat the Chiefs posed, nor to my mind the one the Patriots posed. They’re led by a dynamic but raw rookie quarterback, Jayden Daniels, who’s been pretty good through two starts, with no picks and a very solid 7.7 yards per attempt (more than a full yard better than Burrow at 6.5). He’s thrown no touchdowns, either (he has run for two short ones in garbage time), and has been avoiding sacks and making remarkable athletic plays, not necessarily a sustainable model. The ’Ders have struggled in the red zone, with just a third of their drives inside the 20 finishing in TDs.
The matchup is reminiscent of Cincinnati’s 2012 visit to the capital, when the then-Redskins were quarterbacked by another dual-threat sensation, Robert Griffin III. The Bengals took a 24-7 lead as they throttled RG3, gave it all up as he made one sensational play after another, then hung on for a 38-31 win. I don’t think we’re due for a rerun Monday night—that Washington team had much more talent and made the postseason. But it’s a reminder what a dynamic quarterback can do, and surely Cincinnati has struggled on many occasions with that kind of player. The good news is that the Bengals’ tackling and overall defensive violence was much more pronounced than the garbage effort in Week 1.
The Commanders’ defense has been atrocious thus far, ranking last in DVOA (small sample alert, but nevertheless). Given the schematic improvements we saw in K.C., that should allow Cincinnati to control the game on the offensive end. As I was calling for last week, the Bengals leaned more heavily into two tight end formations against the Chiefs, using rookie Erick All as an in-line blocking dynamo and Mike Gesicki as a receiving threat (though All and Drew Sample were threats when route running as well). They ran 23 of 55 snaps with multiple tights on the field, with the 19 percent in 12 personnel (one back, two tights) being the second-highest rate in the Zac Taylor era. Likewise, the three wideout use rate was the second lowest of his tenure.
How this will change when Tee Higgins returns—there are rumors he’ll be back Monday, but “We’ll see” as the Bengals coaches like to say—is open to question. I would prefer it not to invoke a return to the historic (over)reliance on a three-wide system. Not only is the team more flexible and less predictable with a lot of 12 personnel, the formation takes pressure off of the likes of Andrei Iosivas, Jermaine Burton, and Trenton Irwin to be dynamic on every snap. It’s no coincidence that Yoshi and Burton made big plays against the Chiefs.
It also takes some pressure off of Ja’Marr Chase, who was double-covered as usual on basically every snap in K.C. This time, however, he lost his cool, plain and simple, using abusive language to the point that the refs, who no doubt hear all sorts of X-rated stuff hurled in their direction every week, felt compelled to throw a costly personal foul flag. That’s what happens when a player without a new contract gets hip-drop tackled and feels his football mortality haunt him for the first time. Chase has made plenty of cash over the last three seasons and has much more coming this season and next, of course, but that’s all relative.
That’s now two consecutive games where Chase has taken an unnecessary flag that cost the team late. (Remember the delay of game after his pouty slow walk off the field in Week 1? I do.) It’s not a good look, nor perhaps a sustainable situation if he can’t control his emotions.
Contract negotiations affect every player differently, but it’s always a consideration no matter how much everyone pretends it isn’t. The lack of a new deal certainly appears to be affecting Chase in a way few of us thought it would. Meanwhile, is Higgins going to risk his tender leg for a team that has essentially put him in the friend zone? Dude, at least think about the $50 million insurance policy you reportedly took out before blowing your stack.
Can I dare ask the unthinkable question and revisit the exhausting, meme-dominated debate from the spring of 2021? Heck with it, here goes: Would you, as a fan base, if offered the chance right now for a straight-up trade, deal Chase for Detroit’s star tackle and would-be Bengal draftee Penei Sewell?
Hey, like they say in certain (obnoxious) corners of the internet, I’m just asking questions here. More to the point, would either team do it? Detroit, after extending Sewell through 2029 this summer, almost certainly would not, while I think the Bengals would at least discuss it. There, I suppose, is your answer. It won’t happen, of course, but the fact it’s even worthy of playing out in your head is somewhat disturbing.
In a way, being 0-2 is a good thing—the Bengals should be laser-focused on winning the games in front of them and not content to toss their helmets out on the field and assume the lesser opposition will roll over. Beating Washington and then Carolina next week should be in the offing, but an upset alert might sound if the Bengals were 1-1 or 2-0. Now there’s no excuse for an unphysical or mentally-challenged effort.
Corey Dillon and Tim Krumrie will be at Paycor Stadium for the Ring of Honor ceremony on Monday night. Please don’t give either a ’90s flashback by dropping to 0-3.
Robert Weintraub heads up Bengals coverage for Cincinnati Magazine and has written for The New York Times, Grantland, Slate, and Deadspin. Follow him on Twitter at @robwein. Listen to him on Mo Egger’s show on 1530AM every Thursday at 5:20 p.m.
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