Let’s just get this out of the way right up top: I take absolutely no pleasure in being right. Last week in this space I predicted Cincinnati would struggle to defeat, and perhaps lose to, the thought-to-be hapless Patriots. Indeed, the Bengals fell in yet another season opener, the fifth in six seasons under Zac Taylor, by the score of 16-10. This team is more allergic to September than I used to be back in the old-timey days when school started after Labor Day. And with the dreaded Chiefs up next, another 0-2 start is a distinct possibility.
Pretty much all of the doubts I had coming into the season after a summer of Bad Vibes were consummated Sunday. The run defense—and the tackling that is responsible for it—continues to be tragicomic, not helped by the absence of so many D-linemen to injury. To wit: Pats tailback Rhamondre Stevenson gained 118 of his 120 yards after contact. The tackling, in a one-game sample, has not improved from last year’s debacle. Defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo reports his troops missed 14 (!) tackles on Sunday, twice their average from the shoddy 2023 season.
The passing attack was limp, not helped of course by Tee Higgins not playing and Ja’Marr Chase being in late-July form. The running game didn’t make anyone forget Joe Mixon, who naturally was piling up 159 yards in his Houston debut. (Joe likes to see the Colts on the other sideline; he’s topped 100 yards from scrimmage in four of five games against Indy in his career.) And no one besides Trey Hendrickson could get anywhere close to the opposing quarterback. But, hey, Ryan Rehkow uncorked that 80-yard punt!
Meanwhile, New England executed its feisty, hard-hitting, let-the-other-team-screw-up style to perfection, resulting in a surprising but hardly unforeseeable upset. Boy, do I hate being right all time….
Of course, the biggest concern entering the game was Joe Burrow, coming off his wrist surgery and lengthy absence, and let’s just say he played like someone who hadn’t faced a live rush against him in nearly a year. With the scheme almost completely attuned to quick throws, he was uncharacteristically skittish, most glaringly on the third down late in the game that was meant to be a deep shot to Chase. It was open, but JB was looking at the rush (which wasn’t really there) and missed his chance. It was a bad play, among other mostly missed opportunities, and Chase was so upset he tortoise-walked off the field, drawing a delay of game flag.
Remember, Burrow said he wanted to play more back in the preseason, and you could see why. Whether a couple of more series at half speed would have made any difference is debatable, but it’s clear that Burrow was not yet back to speed (in the same manner Kirk Cousins, Aaron Rodgers, and Deshaun Watson looked tentative and rusty after being on the shelf).
I know this is heresy, but Joe needs to be better, especially since he signed that huge deal. It’s now been 18 games since he became Joey Moneybags, and he’s missed seven and a half and been excellent in four and a half, terrible in four and just OK in two. I’m not saying there is a correlation, but it should go without saying that your highest-paid player needs to be your most consistent as well. So far, that’s not been the case.
Now, then, no need to panic. We’ve been here before, after all. And one needs only to look at Sunday’s opposition to confirm that. For years under Bill Belichick, the Pats would throw out early-season stinkeroos. The infamous “We’re on to Cincinnati” presser in 2014 came after a Week Four strafing by (ironically) Kansas City that left New England 2-2 and presumed dead. Spoiler: They weren’t dead. They finished 12-4 and won the Super Bowl thanks to Seattle’s incompetence on the goal line. Double-B was open about treating the first month of the season as extended training camp, figuring out what worked and what did not, and preferring to be better at season’s end than season’s start. “R-E-L-A-X,” as Rodgers once told Packers fans after a slow start.
Taylor and Co. clearly feel the same. Now, that’s not to excuse and or equate the two—Belichick had the rings already as Proof of Concept, and other teams around the league, like the Rams, coached by Zac’s old skipper, Sean McVay, managed to overcome early season malaise and missing starters (L.A. was down both offensive tackles, lost Puka Nacua, and of course are without the retired Aaron Donald) and play highly competitive football against excellent teams. Cincinnati decidedly did not do that, which is frustrating.
And of course, there were positives to be taken. For one thing, the Bengals should have, could have, won the game eight different ways despite their ineptitude. As you know well by now, they lost two fumbles in six minutes of game time after losing just two all of last season. The crushing overturn of Mike Gesicki’s seeming TD reception followed by Tanner Hudson losing the ball on the goal line was tough to overcome. You just knew that would be the decisive moment, even with more than a full half left.
Meanwhile, Hendrickson had his expected game—he dominated poor Chuks Okorafor and replacement Vedarian Lowe all game—but despite winning 40 percent of his rushes (per TrueMedia) he was just milliseconds away from Jacoby Brissett on several occasions, any one of which could have been a sack, a forced turnover, or a punt-forcer (Brissett’s 3rd-and-8 completion on their lone TD drive came as Trey was about to bend him in half). Just a single sack might well have changed the entire complexion of a game that was determined by the narrowest of margins (like Dax Hill not hanging on to an end zone pick, for example).
There was a lot of experimentation happening on the offensive end. This is something I alluded to in earlier columns: With a bunch of good wideouts and five tight ends and a pair of running backs, how the personnel groupings are managed will be important going forward. By far the most effective set of plays came in 12 personnel (one back, two tight ends), which was highly effective when it was (infrequently) trotted out on Sunday. Surprising as it may seem, overall Cincinnati’s offense was above league average in Success Rate—a large part of that came from the lone TD drive that saw six runs of the nine plays (not counting a pass interference call).
Indeed, the day may soon arrive when the fundamental aspect of the Bengals’ offense changes from the wide-open passing attack to a power game led by tackle Amarius Mims (fingers crossed) and tight ends like Drew Sample and Erick All. The latter two had some pulverizing blocks against the Pats, but the Bengals never established a physical nature because they were too wedded to the passing game plan. I’m not saying the Bengals will suddenly dial everything in tight and start playing, well, like New England played Sunday. But Burrow’s effectiveness will be heightened when they can force teams out of two-high safety looks more often and wear down defenses more than the Pats were. The Bengals had a mere 48 plays on eight drives—only the Colts ran fewer snaps on offense in Week One).
It’s really too bad the Bengals can’t play Kansas City later in the season, as has become tradition. Cincinnati clearly needs some time to get its act together, and the cohort of injured players don’t seem likely to be out there. K.C. will be blitzing early and often, one presumes, attacking Trent Brown, who was atrocious Sunday. The Bengals’ secondary, which mostly played well in coverage against the no-name pass catchers of New England, will have a far more difficult test against Mr. Travis Swift, rookie burner Xavier Worthy, and of course Pat Mahomes, who sadly did not take an errant tennis ball to the face while attending the U.S. Open over the weekend.
Cincinnati has proven to be adaptable under Taylor’s tutelage, and if there’s been one constant over the past few seasons it’s that when their backs are against the wall the Bengals come out and play like, well, tigers. If nothing else, answering some of those summertime doubts in a good way would be victory enough on Sunday.
Robert Weintraub heads up Bengals coverage for Cincinnati Magazine and has written for The New York Times, Grantland, Slate, and Deadspin. Follow him on Twitter at @robwein. Listen to him on Mo Egger’s show on 1530AM every Thursday at 5:20 p.m.
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