This is a new era of Bengals football. If the 1980s were an epoch of breakthrough and innovation, the ’90s lost and inept, and the Marvin Lewis years capped at “above average,” we’re now living in the Age of Agony. A Super Bowl and AFC Championship Game lost in excruciating manner, the great franchise quarterback unable to finish two of his first four seasons, and now an exasperating start to a season of boundless promise with a title-worthy offense undone by lackluster defense and a litany of disaster at crunch time.
Sunday’s crushing 41-38 overtime loss to Baltimore was this season distilled to its essence: brilliance from Joe Burrow, huge plays to Ja’Marr Chase, and a wide-open, highly diverse attack leavened by tragicomic tackling and pass coverage, poor situational football, and bad plays coming at the worst possible times. Cincinnati is now 1-4, with its playoff hopes on life support. But they aren’t dead yet; more on that in a moment.
I’m not sure I have the strength to re-litigate much of Sunday’s gut punch, which earned four out of four bricks (hurled at the TV in anger and frustration). Burrow said he had to play a “perfect game,” and he damn near did. Imagine if he’d connected with a streaking Tee Higgins on the early bomb that was underthrown! Joey B did make the one crucial mistake, of course, on the late-game slant that was picked off by Marlon Humphrey—Chase actually took the blame on that, to be fair—but it shouldn’t detract from his 392-yard, five-TD masterpiece.
One thing about that interception, though. Everyone beating on Zac Taylor for running it three times and settling for a long field goal in overtime conveniently forgets that, in a similar circumstance late in regulation, the Bengals “put it in Burrow’s hands” and disaster struck. A look at the tape clearly shows that Cincinnati was going to pass on that second down in OT after Lamar Jackson’s gift fumble, but it was covered, so Burrow wisely checked into a run. You can quibble with the heavy formations if you want, but we can’t brag on Evan McPherson being automatic from beyond 50 yards and whine about “settling” for a long attempt at the same time. Just execute a decent hold, and no one is thinking about that at all.
But that’s the way the season has gone. Is it over already? I’m staying optimistic, something I seldom do when it comes to the Bengals.
Everywhere you turn, someone hits you with a stat concerning the unlikelihood of making the playoffs after starting 1-4 overall and 0-3 at home. But you can take some solace in the notion that these numbers always go back decades. The NFL has substantially changed in the interim—not as much as baseball, perhaps, but enough. With the advent of the seventh playoff team and the 17th game, plus the dissipation of home-field advantage in recent seasons, most of those numbers aren’t nearly as relevant.
That isn’t to say the Bengals are in good shape. Obviously, all margin for error is gone. But they remain just two games behind the Ravens and Steelers in the AFC North, hardly insurmountable with a dozen left to play. Meanwhile, the rest of the conference, outside of the god-dang Chiefs, is nothing to scare you witless. (Remember those halcyon days when the AFC was a minefield and the NFC a sponge collection?)
The underlying stats remain strong for Cincinnati, starting with point differential, a key indicator of strength outside of the tyranny of the won-lost record. (“Treat victory and defeat for the imposters that they are,” in the words of longtime coach Bob Sutton.) In a stark example of the power of close games, the 1-4 Bengals are just minus-5 in net points. If McPherson’s kick had been good, Cincinnati would be plus-1 rather than minus-5; that’s how vanishingly small the margins are so far. Another way to say it is that the average game this season has seen the Bengals lose by a single, crushing point.
But look around the AFC. The 4-1 Texans, a supposed powerhouse, are minus-12! They’ve been the antithesis of the Bengals thus far, playing far less well than perceived from afar but eking out games by 2, 3, 4, and 6 points. Indeed, the entire AFC South is currently underwater, and Buffalo leads the conference with plus-36 while sitting at just 3-2. The Ravens are plus-21 and Pittsburgh plus-19. Even the Chiefs are only plus-33, well behind NFC pacesetters Minnesota (plus-63). In other words, no one is particularly good, anyone can beat anyone, and if the tight game record regresses to the mean in Cincinnati, the Bengals can be right back in the mix in a hurry.
It should regress, by the way. An 0-4 start in one-score games is something that seldom lasts all year. Yes, the Bengals were 0-8 in 2019, but that was the worst team in the NFL. “Zac Taylor always loses one-score games!” isn’t a thing; Cincinnati is 19-14 over the last three seasons in that stat split. I’m more concerned that in the biggest circumstances—the aforementioned Super Bowl and AFC title games included—Burrow and the offense have had the opportunity to win games and didn’t get it done. Overall, though, Cincinnati is more likely than not to start winning a few of these tight ones.
Cincinnati’s offense now ranks second in DVOA (Baltimore is first), and Burrow is at or near the top of the charts in virtually every stat, even when factoring in his dog of an opener. Only the Ravens and the Commanders have scored more points. (Hmmm, what do those two teams have in common?)
Of course, the critical issue is that while unheralded draft picks like Chase Brown, Erick All, and Andrei Iosivas have stepped up to become contributors, their more highly-drafted counterparts on defense have not: Dax Hill is lost for the season to a torn ACL; Myles Murphy, McKinnley Jackson, and Jordan Battle are only just now getting into action; and the long-awaited transition to a new D-Generation continues to be on hold. Is it Lou Anarumo? As I’ve pointed out all season, he is riding off a 25-game heater encompassing the 2021 postseason and 2022; his units have been grim otherwise.
That sterling offensive efficiency ranking is offset by a 22nd-ranked defense and (ouch) 25th-ranked special teams, putting the Bengals at 12th overall. Their team ranking may be lopsided, but they remain ahead of Pittsburgh (14th), Denver (16th), and eight other AFC teams. In other words, they’re seventh in the conference in efficiency but dead last in the playoff standings.
The turnaround needs to begin Sunday night in New York, with a game against another team we all thought would be a walkover before the season but is surprisingly frisky: the Giants. Amazingly enough, Cincinnati has never beaten the G-Men in the NY/NJ metropolitan area—granted, that encompasses just four games—because the teams haven’t met very often through the years. And wouldn’t you know it, the losses have all been incredibly tight: one point in 2016, three points in OT in 2008, two points in 1997, and a huge seven-point margin in 1994.
Another tight game feels inevitable, and Cincinnati’s much-improved O-line will be the key up against New York’s powerful front led by Brian Burns, Kayvon Thibodeaux (who is nicked up), and Dexter Lawrence. The beleaguered Bengals secondary may or may not have to deal with Uno 2.0 Malik Nabers, who has a concussion, but the Giants pushed Seattle around without him last week in an impressive win. As always, it’s better to play a team coming off a victory than off a defeat, but that’s been the case in every game thus far (not counting the opener of course) and things haven’t worked out very well.
The margin for error is gone. Yes, an 8-0 finish as in 2022 or 7-1 as in 2012 (a rally began by a win over the Giants, by the way) will cure all ills, but of course it’s hard to count on that when we’ve seen the first month-plus play out as it has. But that’s what we have to grasp on to, like grim death, at this point. It’s either that or sink to the depths of “wait ’til next year.”
Robert Weintraub heads up Bengals coverage for Cincinnati Magazine and has written for The New York Times, Grantland, Slate, and Deadspin. Follow him on Twitter at @robwein. Listen to him on Mo Egger’s show on 1530AM every Thursday at 5:20 p.m.
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