At this time last week I was all about tanking the rest of the season in order to draft a difference-maker in April. Today I’m busily trying to figure out playoff tiebreakers and dreaming of another January run. As Michael Corleone once said, “Just when I thought I was out, they pull me back in!” And all because of a shockingly great performance by Jake Browning!
His 32-37, 354-yard masterpiece rivals namesake Tom Browning’s perfect game for great moments in Cincinnati Browning History. And it came on Monday Night Football against a potent Jacksonville team, with an astonished nation watching Browning outduel Trevor Lawrence before Lord Longhair went down with a sprained ankle late in regulation. The Bengals won in overtime, 34-31, in a fantastically entertaining game with all manner of twists, turns, clonked crossbars, scary injuries, horrific spotting of the ball by the referees, and ill-advised wide receiver double passes (Zac Taylor, please burn that play).
Few figured Jake Browning had this sort of excellence in him, especially after last week’s dud versus Pittsburgh. Looking back, Browning wasn’t terrible in that game, nor was he overwhelmed when he came in cold against Baltimore after Joe Burrow was lost with the wrist injury. Nevertheless, there is a world of difference between being a true captain of a ship and managing not to collide with an iceberg. Browning looked positively Burrow-esque on Monday night. If Joe hadn’t just signed a $275-million extension, I’d say there was a QB controversy in the Queen City! (OK, no, I wouldn’t.)
Meanwhile, Cincinnati does officially employ players at the running back position! They ran the ball with authority and commitment, unlike in the Steelers game and most of this season. Rookie Chase Brown at long last made an appearance, and an impact, with 61 yards on nine carries, including a 31-yard burst, the longest Bengals run from scrimmage in 2023. In all, four of the team’s 11 longest runs of the season came in this one game: one more from Brown and two from Joe Mixon, who added 68 tough yards on the ground and another 49 receiving.
It’s easy to say “At last!” and eviscerate Taylor and the coaching staff for the hesitation in implementing this type of game plan, but the truth is the offensive line simply played much better, as the linemen stopped crashing into one another and/or going the wrong way. The opponent helped too—Jacksonville doesn’t have Cam Heyward or anything like Pittsburgh’s run-stopping acumen. The Jags were particularly vulnerable to the “orbit bend” play, which involved Ja’Marr Chase looping around the QB presnap and drawing Jacksonville’s defensive end upfield and the handoff going to a back who then ran inside said rushing end. That was what provided Brown’s 31-yarder and several other good gainers.
Because Browning played all summer while Burrow recovered from his calf injury, the game plan against Pittsburgh seemed to assume he could be Joe Burrow Lite. Wisely, the coaches changed course. Taylor and offensive coordinator Brian Callahan adapted the scheme to fit Browning and who he is as a quarterback. They ran it 20 percent more often, and having 72 snaps vs. 41 last week allowed for more diversification. They used far more run-pass options than last week, dumped the empty backfield (there were none all game), and leaned into play action, screens, boots and movement.
Burrow is the master at scanning the field from shotgun and delivering to the right guy, but Browning isn’t nearly as comfortable at that. He prefers reads where the field is cut in half and he can choose between two quick-hitting options. Thus, when his strengths were highlighted, he looked like a bona fide NFL quarterback. He even looked twitchy and athletic on a number of plays, including a long scramble to set up the go-ahead field goal in regulation and a superb, hip-flipping move to avoid a sack and complete a pass that was reminiscent of (dare I say it?) Patrick Mahomes.
Unsurprisingly, the Jaguars tried to blitz Browning to rattle him, but he was unflappable (and the blocking communication was mostly top notch). When blitzed, Browning was 8-13 for 151 yards. When he wasn’t? 24 of 24 for 203 yards, zero sacks and one 21-yard rush. Just amazing work from a guy with his unaccomplished NFL career.
When I brought up the remaining schedule after Burrow went down, it was done ruefully: Look at all the backup QBs still ahead! We coulda been the No. 1 seed! I do it now with a cocked eyebrow: Look at the backup QBs still ahead … we could have a shot here.
In fairness, Gardner Minshew has been playing for the Colts, this Sunday’s opponent in the Jungle, virtually all season, and Indy is a surprising 7-5. What seemed a drab December fixture is now an important game for wild-card contention.
Unfortunately, the Colts have a specific matchup advantage over the Bengals. Indy is the sixth-best rushing attack by DVOA, while the Cincinnati is 29th in run defense, even after mostly stuffing Jacksonville’s run game. Now the reverse is true as well: The Horseshoes are 26th against the run themselves, so Cincinnati’s newfound commitment to the ground game could have more success on Sunday. Assuming both teams will move the ball toting the rock, the game will likely come down to which backup, Browning or Minshew, plays less like a backup.
The two passers are right next to one another in DYAR, 21st and 22nd overall, with Minshew slightly ahead of Browning despite playing seven more games—that’s how awesome Browning’s game Monday night was. (By our numbers, it was the 22nd-best QB performance of the season; Burrow was better only against the 49ers.) Certainly Minshew offers a larger history of success, but he also has a far wider range of play than Browning, who has yet to be truly poor, albeit in a very small sample.
The Bengals’ kiddie secondary continues to mix outstanding plays with head-scratching breakdowns, often on consecutive snaps. This is to be expected with such young starters, though now is the time for them to cohere into the unit we hope and pray they can be. The Colts have pass-blocked well (curiously their run blocking metrics aren’t great, despite the strong rushing numbers, a credit to Zack Moss and Jonathan Taylor), but when pressured Minshew tends to drift into hero ball and make mistakes. That’s why he’s a backup. Cincinnati’s pass rush has been mostly good this season, and this is the kind of game that will probably come down to getting to Minshew in key moments in the fourth quarter.
Before we get too fired up about a late charge to the playoffs, the Bengals still have just a 13 percent chance at the postseason, well behind the Colts, Cleveland, and Pittsburgh. That would change with a win Sunday, of course, but the main snag remains the team’s poor divisional and especially conference record. Beating the Jags at least meant the Bengals would not be swept by the AFC South, but the fact remains that Cincinnati is just 2-6 against their own conference. The most likely result now appears to be a Quixotic windmill tilt that comes up just short due to tiebreakers.
But that’s certainly better than it appeared at this time a week ago, when we were discussing draft position (in November!) and whether Browning should be lifted for A.J. McCarron. In an otherwise grim season, Jake the Snake’s North Florida thunderbolt stands out as an astounding high point. Now we just need five more like it.
Robert Weintraub heads up Bengals coverage for Cincinnati Magazine and has written for The New York Times, Grantland, Slate, and Deadspin. Follow him on Twitter at @robwein. Listen to him on Mo Egger’s show on 1530AM every Thursday at 5:20 p.m.
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