We made it! Another punishingly long offseason is in the books. There will be real live NFL football played this very evening, as the scarcely acknowledged Super Bowl champs from Philly host the team that annually dominates conversation from March through August (by design), Dallas, to begin the 2025 season. I think you all will agree when I say it’s about dang time.
Of course, there was plenty of noise around the Bengals this offseason, most of it contract-related. Those haggles are behind us, thank the lord, and now we can discuss actual on-field play each week in this space.
As in 2024, Cincinnati has a soft open scheduled, with a game against perpetually-rebuilding Cleveland on Sunday. Of course, we know how last season’s cupcake opener turned out, with the craptastic Patriots pulling a 16-10 upset that haunted the Bengals all year and basically kept them out of the playoffs.
That game, a remnant of Joe Burrow’s wrist injury from 2023, is Exhibit A in the “Cincinnati always starts slow and it will cost Zac Taylor his job!” discourse. As I have stated often, I’m not much into that line of thinking; Taylor’s 23-8 record in December/January is far more important and impressive. But should Cincinnati conjure a way to lose to Joe Flacco and the Browns—hardly an unlikely result, given the rivalry—on the lake on Sunday, and the “Not again???” noise around Taylor will be deafening.
Certainly, the Bengals are capable of losing to Cleveland—or anyone else—given their questions on defense and at offensive guard. Concerning the latter, Dalton Risner’s signing received a reaction not seen since Lucky Lindy landed. I thought the Queen City would throw a ticker-tape parade. Remember, two other teams couldn’t wait to get rid of Risner; he was signed for the league minimum, which is the very definition of “replacement level.”
The Bengals desperately needed another veteran body for depth, as they have only two rookies and the fragile, just-barely-average Lucas Patrick manning the guard position. In that sense it was a good signing. But if Risner provides anything beyond what last year’s Turnstile Duo of Alex Cappa and Cordell Volson provided, it will be gravy.
Little more needs to be said about the defense at this point. You’ve no doubt spent many a summer barbecue endlessly bemoaning the unit and describing the lack of changes made on that side of the ball. Trey Hendrickson is back, and the other 10 guys are, well, they’ll be on the same field. Until we see whether or not Shemar Stewart is a game-wrecker, Kris Jenkins takes the next step, Demetrious Knight offers anything beyond “maturity,” etc., etc., we can’t really judge how the defense will play.
As I’ve talked about before, they were not quite as terrible as you think they were in 2024 except when it came to allowing the big shiv-in-the-gut play at the worst possible time. New DC Al Golden was brought in specifically to eliminate those moments. Remember, defense tends to be far less consistent from year to year than offense—just look at the aforementioned Eagles for proof.
Still, the pass rush beyond Hendrickson is a Riddler-costume-sized question mark, the linebackers a large shoulder shrug, and the cornerbacks the very definition of high variance. Then there are the safeties, who consist of a player who took a pay cut in order to stay on the team (Geno Stone), a guy who refused to hit Jayden Daniels in a preseason game (Jordan Battle), a special teams ace who’s hardly played any defensive snaps (Tycen Anderson), and an undrafted rookie (P.J. Jules). Why they haven’t at least brought in the safety equivalent of Dalton Risner—be it Jabril Peppers or Justin Simmons or whomever you fancy—is beyond me. Faith in Golden and his judgment is the only thing to hang on to here.
But don’t fret, we still have Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Chase Brown, Amarius Mims, OBJ, and on and on. It might not seem like it to us myopic, Bengals-obsessed, always-expecting-the worst superfans, but every other team—even the Eagles, Ravens, Bills, etc.—have weak areas on their rosters that their respective fans are worried about. Few have the established firepower that Cincinnati can deploy, and there is no better method for assuring you will always be in a given game.
It may be hard, and lord knows I’m the last one to take my own advice in this case, but remember to, as Foghat put it, slow down and take it easy. It’s a long season, and it’ll be getting even longer soon enough. There will be moments of fury over the defense, microscopic examinations of how this or that lineman is useless, held breaths whenever one of the superstars gets up slowly or limps off the field. The team will have crappy Sundays, limp periods of offense, sieve-like displays when Lamar or Josh or, uh, Flacco is the opponent. They’ll have close wins over meh opponents, dramatic wins over good teams, and some instantly forgettable ones. That’s the NFL.
The key is limiting damage, winning when playing less than your best, and making crucial plays in high-leverage moments, which the Bengals certainly did not do a year ago. Remember, even in a nightmare season, the team righted the ship, won five straight to conclude the campaign, and would have made the playoffs but for KC turtling in shameful fashion.
As we approach the new season, the decisive factor for me is that so many tight—nay, shocking—losses can’t possibly happen again (right?). These things tend to regress to the mean, as we say in the analytics world; in other words, bounce back to league average. Think of how differently the entire narrative around the team changes if Cincinnati beats the Patriots and/or makes the overtime kick or the two-point conversion against the Ravens and/or doesn’t commit a penalty on fourth and a million against the Chiefs. Lou Anarumo likely still has a job, Tee Higgins likely isn’t a Bengal, and other dominos too numerous to name fall.
Certainly, the Bengals would have been a Super Bowl contender, and they should be this season barring a repeat of 2024’s ridiculousness or another injury to Burrow. But before that they have to be in the Final Seven, and the best way to guarantee that is to win the AFC North. Baltimore has ruled the division the last two seasons; no team has ever won it three years in a row, as the Bengals discovered in 2023.
This season, I predict the Bengals win their opener (happy now?) and start well enough to quiet that particular storyline, despite the work in process on the defensive side of the ball. They continue their strong second half play and even threaten the franchise record for wins in a season, which is only 12 after all these years (1981, 1988, 2022). Going 13-4 would probably mean at worst winning a tiebreaker over Baltimore and would put the Bengals in fighting position for a top seed. For all the success of 2021-22, just two of the seven playoff games were at home. The goal for this season should begin trying to match that number (a first-round bye would count as a home game).
Presuming reasonable health and anything at all from Golden’s defensive unit, that’s what I foresee from this team. Of course, by Sunday circa 4:15 p.m. we could be feeling very differently once again.
Robert Weintraub heads up Bengals coverage for Cincinnati Magazine and has written for The New York Times, Grantland, Slate, and Deadspin. He guests on Mo Egger’s radio show every Thursday in the 5 p.m. hour. Follow him on X at @robwein.
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