The good news is the Cincinnati Reds lead the National League Central. Meanwhile, their struggling offense ranks last in baseball in batting average, last in OPS, and in the bottom five in runs scored. All these things are true at the same time, but they’re not in conflict because of an unlikely bright spot: the best bullpen in either league.
Three weeks into the season and the Reds are 10-0 in games decided by two or fewer runs, the first time any NL team has started a season that way since baseball started keeping track. For reference, last year’s Reds went 35-38 in such games. This is a big deal and an early sign that this year’s Redlegs just might be different.
The transformation starts with Tony Santillan. After a breakout season last year (80 appearances, 2.44 ERA), he hasn’t allowed an earned run across 10 consecutive outings. His fastball velocity, which averaged higher than 96 miles per hour in 2025, has been hovering around 94 mph thus far, but the results remain brilliant. His slurve is his primary “out” pitch, and opposing batters have struggled mightily with his movement, missing on 34.6% of swings—well above the league average of 24.9%.
Graham Ashcraft has been similarly dominant, now fully settled into his identity as a reliever after a couple of years in the rotation. He sports a tidy 1.50 ERA, and while reliever ERA is rarely an informative stat (small sample sizes, you know), the eye test shows a pitcher who has matured into a dominant arm. His stuff has always had the potential to translate well to the pen; it’s potential no longer. At age 28, Ashcraft is on tap for a very big season.
Rookie Connor Phillips is like a tantalizing mixture of Ashcraft and Santillan, with a massive fastball that averages 98 mph, complemented with breaking stuff that gets batters to swing and miss at one of the best rates in baseball. Sure, his walk rate needs work, but the kid is a treat to watch when he’s locating his pitches in the zone.
The bullpen doesn’t stop there. The depth has mattered as much as the individual performances. Sam Moll has allowed just two hits all season and, at age 34, is in the midst of his best big league season yet. In 11 appearances, Pierce Johnson has struck out 10 and walked only two, posting a 2.89 ERA. Brock Burke is 1-1 with a 0.87 ERA and the best ERA+ on the club.
Kyle Nicolas, acquired from Pittsburgh during spring training, struck out the side against the Twins on Saturday in the most promising outing of his young Reds career. When your eighth-best reliever is contributing moments like that, you know you’re living right. And Caleb Ferguson, a lefty who has pitched in the playoffs with the Dodgers, Astros, and Mariners, is nearing a return. When he arrives, this group gets even deeper.
Manager Terry Francona gets credit for his handling of the bullpen. He’s been deliberate about not burning through his best arms in every close game, using that depth to keep everyone fresh. The Reds lead the majors in relief pitcher appearances, but Tito has spread those appearances across an entire roster rather than exhausting two or three guys. We’ll see if they can keep up the pace, but at the moment Cincinnati has the best bullpen ERA (2.34) in either league.
You may have noticed that there’s one bullpen arm I haven’t mentioned yet: closer Emilio Pagan. On Sunday in Minneapolis, the Reds entered the ninth inning trailing the Twins 3-1, needing two runs just to tie. They got four thanks to a Spencer Steer single, a Tyler Stephenson single, and then a TJ Friedl three-run double giving the Reds a 4-3 lead that, for a moment, seemed to set up a routine Pagan save opportunity.
As is often the case, it was not routine. Pagan recorded his second blown save of the season, and the game went to extras, where the Reds won 7-4. Series sweep. Hurrah.
Listen, I like Pagan. I’m glad he’s in the bullpen. He’s a good pitcher who’s been valuable to this franchise. Surprisingly thrust into the closer role last year, he converted 32 saves with a 2.88 ERA, and you can make an argument that he earned every dollar of his two-year, $20 million contract. I’m not necessarily going to make that argument, but I am very happy he is a Cincinnati Red.
I’d just prefer him to be pitching in the seventh inning. Pagan is miscast as a closer, and I’m certain he would not fill that role on any other team with genuine playoff aspirations. The numbers tell the story: a 4.76 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and a 69.2% flyball rate combined with a high 15.8% barrel rate that doesn’t inspire confidence. He is 6-for-8 on save chances so far in 2026, but the save column flatters him in a way the underlying numbers do not. I fear that’s not sustainable over 162 games.
The good news is that Tony Santillan exists. And Graham Ashcraft. And maybe even Connor Phillips, someday. Big-time back-of-the-bullpen power arms are suddenly abundant in Cincinnati.
The offense will come. It has to, right? They’re showing signs of life in any case. The starting pitchers are going to improve as well—Andrew Abbott and Brady Singer, in particular, haven’t found their grooves yet, and Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo are still injured.
For now, though, first place belongs to the team with baseball’s worst offense and best bullpen. This is such a crazy sport, and I couldn’t love it any more than I do.
Chad Dotson helms Reds coverage at Cincinnati Magazine and is co-author of “The Big 50: The Men and Moments That Made the Cincinnati Reds.” His newsletter about Cincinnati sports can be found at chaddotson.com.
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