A couple of weeks ago in this very space, I told you where to look if you wanted a reason to believe in this year’s Reds. Not the lineup additions, not the returning Hall of Fame manager, and not the boost provided by last October’s champagne—I told you to look at a couple of young pitchers.
The real excitement, though, is Chase Burns and Rhett Lowder—two young power arms with massive upside. If one or both of them takes a step forward in 2026, this rotation will be as formidable as any in the National League. Burns struck out the first five hitters he faced in his big-league debut last June and has electric stuff. Lowder had a 1.17 ERA in his six starts in 2024 before injuries swallowed his 2025. If you’re looking for a reason to believe in this team’s ceiling, start there.
Ten days into the season, at the risk of taking a victory lap entirely too soon, I’d like to humbly submit that I was absolutely and undeniably correct. (So was Charlie Goldsmith, who said Burns and Lowder are this season’s X-factors along with Sal Stewart.) The Reds are 7-3 and swept the Texas Rangers in three games at Globe Life Field over the weekend. Not bad, right?
Well, not all is wonderful, since the bats have been largely dormant. Cincinnati’s offense ranks among the worst in baseball in terms of runs scored, and only two hitters on the entire team are even hitting at an above-average clip. And yet, somehow, only two National League clubs have a better record right now.
What a time to be alive. That’s what elite pitching does. And Burns and Lowder have been, without exaggeration (and conceding that we’re talking about a small sample size here), elite.
Let’s start with Rhett Lowder. After eight career starts, he carries a 1.30 ERA, which is the lowest mark by a Reds pitcher in that span since earned runs became an official stat in 1913. (That was a long time ago.) In the expansion era (since 1961), only Fernando Valenzuela, Cisco Carlos, Shota Imanaga, and Phil Niekro began their careers with a lower ERA. One of those is a Hall of Famer. Another is a six-time All-Star, a Cy Young winner who became a national sensation as a rookie. Decent company.
Against Texas on Saturday, Lowder admitted afterward he never quite found his rhythm, but from the outside it looked pretty darn good. He worked six shutout innings, allowed three hits, and got all four strikeouts on called third strikes to end at-bats: one changeup and three sliders, all perfectly spotted. The Rangers came into the series as one of the least-chase-happy lineups in the league. Lowder shrugged and located his way through them anyway.
Then there was Chase Burns on Sunday, going about his business in an entirely different way. Where Lowder is precision and craft, Burns is voltage. His average four-seamer clocks in at 98.3 mph, third-fastest among starting pitchers in baseball. He struck out nine Rangers, induced 21 swings-and-misses, and pitched into the seventh inning for the first time in his career. His ERA through two starts is a tidy 0.82. Burns did surrender a wind-aided homer to Joc Pederson in the seventh; Statcast said the open roof and stiff breeze added 25 feet to the drive. But the Reds won anyway, 2-1, on an Elly De La Cruz RBI single in the eighth.
What makes Burns and Lowder particularly fun to watch is not just that they’re so good, but that they’re good in completely opposite ways. Lowder is a four-pitch craftsman who doesn’t need to touch 95 mph to get hitters off-balance. Burns is essentially a mirror image, a flamethrower whose stuff is so filthy that even disciplined hitters end up making ugly swings. This is precisely why I love this dumb game. Here we have two incredibly talented hurlers taking completely different roads to the same destination: zeroes on the scoreboard.
I get even more excited about these two when I start to look at the big picture. I don’t have to tell you, Dear Reader, that the Reds are currently without Hunter Greene (elbow surgery, should be back in July) and Nick Lodolo, whose blister situation took a dispiriting turn last week when a rehab start had to be cut short after 40 pitches. The timeline for his return is unclear.
That means two of the Reds’ best pitchers are in street clothes. Andrew Abbott is an All-Star and the de facto ace right now. But the arms keeping this staff afloat are Burns and Lowder, two of the 15 youngest starting pitchers in baseball. That’s a lot to ask of the kids, but they’ve delivered so far.
Allow me, then, a moment of optimism. I’ll acknowledge upfront that I’m probably getting way ahead of myself, but April is a time for baseball fans to dream. Things haven’t gone south just yet.
Let’s imagine what this rotation could look like in September. Greene returns around the All-Star break and stays healthy in the second half. Lodolo finally cracks the blister code (I know, I know, but bear with me here) and is pitching like an underrated ace by August. Burns and Lowder continue on their current trajectory, pitching like top-of-the-rotation starters in a division race. And Abbott, last year’s All-Star, is the fifth starter. That’s a rotation as formidable as any in the National League.
Yes, the offense needs to wake up. I do believe, as I told you a couple of weeks ago, this lineup is genuinely more dangerous than the one that took the field last year, and that team made the playoffs (albeit briefly). If and when the bats get rolling, this could be a very, very fun team to watch.
Then again, I’m having a lot of fun right now.
Chad Dotson helms Reds coverage at Cincinnati Magazine and is co-author of “The Big 50: The Men and Moments That Made the Cincinnati Reds.” His newsletter about Cincinnati sports can be found at chaddotson.com.
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