Before the last meaningful game of the 2023 season, dearly departed quarterback Joe Burrow stood at midfield on the red and white logo of the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium for several minutes, lost in thought. No one asked or was able to ask him what he was thinking about—perhaps he was simply pondering the rib tips he’d eaten the day before in one of K.C.’s fine BBQ establishments.
But I like to think Burrow was reliving last January’s AFC title game, in which the Bengals came up heartbreakingly, devastatingly short of a return to the Super Bowl. He no doubt thought about the fact that Cincinnati had the ball with a chance to win, and—as happened in the Super Bowl—didn’t get the winning points that would have cemented his legend.
Instead, the best overall team Cincinnati fielded in three decades or so went home empty. In the wake of those kind of crushing losses, the fan’s general self-preservation instinct is to think, “No problem, we’ll be right back here in the mix next season.” But, of course, sports seldom works that way, especially pro football, a game so thoroughly defined by injury.
Burrow’s injuries certainly defined Cincinnati’s 2023, both the severe calf strain that ruined the first part of the season and the wrist tendon rupture that ended it halfway through. In the wake of that awful night in Baltimore when Joe was hurt, the prevailing wisdom was that the Bengals would finish closer to the top of the draft than the playoffs. But in about the lone positive surprise of the 2023 season, backup quarterback Jake Browning kept the team competitive and got Cincinnati to nine wins, including the 31-14 rout of Cleveland’s backups on Sunday.
Given the circumstances, going 9-8 against what proved to be the single most difficult schedule in DVOA history (going back to the early 1980s) was a decent accomplishment. The Bengals finished 11th in overall DVOA, 11th on offense, 23rd on defense, and fourth in special teams. Yes, all four AFC North teams were in the top 11, with Cincinnati fourth among them. That’s a large part of the reason the schedule was so historically difficult. It was surely not great that the rest of the AFC North surpassed the Bengals this season, but at the same time there’s little doubt that even without Burrow Cincinnati would have been a playoff team in any other division.
But they didn’t make the playoffs. There are few NFL cliches as noxious and dehumanizing as “next man up,” but because Browning stepped up and filled in for Burrow with such aplomb, it was easy enough to identify the main culprit: that 23rd-ranked defense. A unit that was the key element in the last two Final Four appearances seriously regressed in 2023. Other than Trey Hendrickson and D.J. Reader, who also was lost to injury before the season ended, no player covered himself in glory.
How much of that can be pinned on defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo, who remains the subject of glowing profiles even though his defense was atrocious for much of 2023? As I wrote previously, it would be a surprise if he was a hot head coaching candidate again after this year’s display—head coach Zac Taylor said he expects the entire staff to return, barring a surprise hire of Anarumo or Brian Callahan. It’s hard to know without being in on meetings and installation practices, but it stands to reason that Anarumo’s highly complicated and ever-shifting defenses require the (also horribly) cliched 10,000 hours to properly execute.
This year’s secondary was an amalgamation of newbies, youngsters, and hobbled vets. All were regular victims of explosive passing plays and failed to keep runs that got past the line of scrimmage from becoming long gainers. Anarumo predicted the loss of veteran safeties Jessie Bates and Vonn Bell would be difficult to overcome, and he was proven correct.
The pass rush was strong (eighth in Adjusted Sack Rate), thanks to the fantastic Hendrickson, underrated as usual even though his season stacks up with the heralded likes of T.J. Watt, Myles Garrett, and Micah Parsons. But beyond him there was no consistent pressure on the opposing QB, and that had as much to do with the poor pass defense as anything. Last year’s first rounder Myles Murphy flashed only occasionally, the depth at tackle was poor, and Joseph Ossai was just OK.
A better and more consistent pass rush remains a need. And even though Reader was tremendous against the run, as usual, the defense as a whole was awful (28th vs. the rush) in that department. It just goes to show how defense is a team effort, with just a single poor angle or missed gap assignment or miscommunication spelling the difference between forcing a punt and giving up a big play. In 2023, the defense tilted far more toward the latter.
So with the playoffs unwatchable, save for pulling against the Browns, Steelers, and Ravens, we turn to 2024 and what moves the Bengals will look to make in order to return to their proper spot in the postseason. Obviously, Burrow’s health is the foremost element; Browning may be good enough to start in the NFL, but he’s not Joey B. Assuming Burrow is good to go, the offense will be in good shape even if two of the starting wide receivers move on.
We all assume Tyler Boyd played his last game in stripes on Sunday, although I maintain there’s still a chance he returns, depending on what happens with Tee Higgins. If somehow Higgins departs, Boyd could stay on with a short-term deal, but it’s more likely Higgy Bear either re-signs or gets the franchise tag.
The fact that Higgins had an injury-hit campaign with stats far shy of his usual standard may ironically make him more likely to stay in Cincinnati. Burrow, in his season ending press conference, made it clear he expects Tee to be a Bengal in 2024 and noted he specifically made provisions in his enormous new contract to ensure players like him will be affordable. Regardless, the team may well look to draft a replacement in order not to tilt such a large percentage of the payroll to three players, with Ja’Marr Chase certain to get a rich deal soon.
Another interesting decision awaits with Joe Mixon, who took a pay cut to come back and responded with over 1,000 yards on the ground and a dozen touchdowns (of Cincinnati’s 39 offensive scores). He also was stopped seven times at the one-yard line and didn’t go on to score on the same drive, the most in the NFL. Fantasy owners, weep!
Mix is due a $3 million roster bonus on March 16, which would guarantee him a spot in 2024 (and trigger a $9 million cap hit). Rookie Chase Brown had a few electric moments, but it’s hard to see him as a lone bellcow back entering next season. Cincinnati will likely add a cheaper veteran to twin with Brown and let Mixon go, but Mix is a key locker room figure, which has to be factored in.
As happens almost every year, there are a multitude of positions that need to be addressed. Right tackle Jonah Williams is likely to move on as a free agent, the tight end position remains an upgrade target, and another interior lineman to back up and eventually replace Alex Cappa will be needed. Defensively, another pass rusher is required. Reader isn’t likely to be back for the beginning of the season and is a free agent looking for a third contract, so his return is questionable at best. The Bengals could sign a free agent replacement inside and draft another, as the depth behind the starting front four proved wanting. Chido Awuzie had a poor season coming off a torn ACL, and no team can ever have enough corners, so a new one will probably be added.
Of course, the flip side of contending until New Year’s Eve is the fact Cincinnati now doesn’t pick until No. 18, a position from where it won’t be easy to fill all the gaps with cheap labor. Burrow’s cap hit doesn’t become truly terrifying until 2025, but it does ratchet up quite a bit next season. There is still room to dream (Chris Jones? Justin Madabuike? Jaylon Jones? Brian Burns?), but the more likely approach will be to grab a handful of bargain signings and hope they can gel with the young talent in place, with Anarumo still on hand to concoct the schemes.
But that’s a tale for the spring. It pains me to depart Cincinnati Magazine’s digital pages with so much NFL football still to be played, but some seasons don’t go as planned. Sadly, 2023 was one we will look back upon as a missed opportunity because Burrow wasn’t healthy. More than any other factor, the crucial thing going forward will be not repeating that sentence ever again.
Robert Weintraub heads up Bengals coverage for Cincinnati Magazine and has written for The New York Times, Grantland, Slate, and Deadspin. Follow him on Twitter at @robwein. Listen to him on Mo Egger’s show on 1530AM every Thursday at 5:20 p.m.
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