Even prior to FC Cincinnati’s 1-1 draw with Orlando Saturday night in the West End, the club’s Supporters’ Shield odds were long. Not quite as dire as the Reds’ playoff chances following a three-game mid-September sweep by the Athletics, but close. Saturday’s fortunate tie wasn’t quite the nail in the Shield coffin, but it’s very difficult to see the Garys claiming their second regular-season hardware in three seasons.
With 32 league matches in the bag and two remaining, the Orange and Blue sit four points behind Philadelphia (63 points) and two points ahead of San Diego and Vancouver in the Shield race. Here are my top favorites to claim the Shield.
1. Philadelphia
If I were going to rank MLS Cup champion favorites, I’d knock the Union down a few pegs. But this is a regular-season ranking, and Philly’s season-long consistency has them sitting pretty following a disastrous 2024 that snapped a six-year playoff streak and cost longtime skipper Jim Curtin his job. The Union close with tilts vs. surging New York City and at Charlotte, who own MLS’s best home record.
2. Vancouver
Vancouver maintaining its blistering early-season pace—the Whitecaps’ second league loss didn’t come until June 14— was always going to be near-impossible. But following a month-long lull after its 5-0 defeat in the Concacaf Champions Cup, Vancouver has regained its rollicking form (unbeaten in eight straight in all competitions). The Whitecaps actually have four matches left: three in the league, plus the Canadian Championship tonight against Canadian Premier League side Vancouver FC.
3. Inter Miami
The Herons (56 points) have had a really long season. They advanced to the semifinals of both the Concacaf Champions Cup and Leagues Cup and made it to the Club World Cup knockout stage. That advancement in non-MLS competition backloaded its schedule; while most MLS sides have just two league contests remaining, Miami has three. Tuesday night’s home loss to Chicago was Miami’s 49th match of 2025, while FC Cincinnati have played 39 games. And while wear and tear is certainly a factor at this stage of the season for an old team, the Herons still have Lionel Messi—cruising to a second straight MVP award—capable of carrying them.
4. FC Cincinnati
Though they’re unbeaten in three successive forays, the Garys are not here based on current form but where they sit in the Shield standings. The club’s remaining matches—at New York Red Bulls on Saturday, home vs. Montreal—scream six points. And while inconsistency reigns on offense and defense as the season draws to a close, no team aside from Miami has as many match-winners as FC Cincinnati. That may not lead to a second Shield in three seasons, but it could equate to a deep playoff run.
5. San Diego
I was about to plug New York City FC into the fifth slot, but then I noticed they had to play at Philadelphia and host Seattle in its final two matches—a brutal finish. Thus, the plucky expansion side that’s won just once over its past five contests takes my final spot.
Grant Freking writes FC Cincinnati coverage for Cincinnati Magazine. You can follow him on X at @GrantFreking.
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