Beat Paraguay and Australia, draw or narrowly lose to Türkiye, get a little help to win the group. Most rational U.S. men’s soccer fans would have taken that outcome before the World Cup began.
Well, after impressive, mature victories over new German overlords Paraguay and a wannabe American football team in Australia, there was nothing left to play for in the group finale vs. Türkiye. Manager Mauricio Pochettino made nine changes to his starting XI, and the rotated lineup delivered an entertaining but sloppy showing in a 3-2 defeat. An annoying result, but a meaningless one. Injuries and yellow cards were sidestepped. Star attacker Christian Pulisic managed 33 minutes after missing the Australia match and has pledged himself ready to play 90 minutes in the next match.
That next match is a Round of 32 showdown tonight in Santa Clara, California, opposite Bosnia and Herzegovina. (Fortunately for the teams and the spectators, Northern California is exempt from the heat dome that has most of the country feeling like Arrakis.) By the numbers, Bosnia should be every bit as overmatched against the Americans as Paraguay and Australia were. You know, the same kind of underdog that South Africa, Japan, and Paraguay were against Canada, Brazil, and Germany, respectively, to start the Round of 32. But homefield advantage, FIFA rankings, and prior tournament history meant little at this stage.
The Canadians played with the weight of 41 million maple leafs on their backs before a 93rd-minute winner from the edge of the penalty area granted them passage from South Africa, FIFA’s 60th-ranked side. Japan held a second-half lead and was minutes away from forcing extra time before a 96th-minute goal by the Seleção. Which brings us to the former football power known as Germany, which failed to finish lower than third in four straight World Cups from 2002 through 2014, winning the last of them.
Die Mannschaft managed a single goal (on 1.49 expected goals) in 120-plus minutes to Paraguay, losing in penalties. Perhaps we should have seen this coming; the Germans were unimpressive in the group stage. They crushed World Cup debutants Curaçao 7-1 but needed a 94th-minute winner vs. Ivory Coast and dropped their group stage finale to Ecuador. Germany hasn’t made the Round of 16 since 2014.
I took that German detour to bring us back to Bosnia, which qualified for the World Cup by taking down Wales and Italy in penalty shootouts. They then drew Canada, were pounded 4-1 by Switzerland, and beat Qatar 3-1 in the group stage. Bosnia has scored five goals this tournament on 1.83 expected goals, the lowest xG for any team that advanced to the knockout stages. They also want nothing to do with the ball (38 percent possession). Bosnia is essentially Central European Australia, but that comparison shouldn’t be mistaken for derision. Bosnia, battle-hardened and comfortable defending deep, can win this match.
Again, the U.S. has already ousted similar opponents in Paraguay and Australia. If lightning strikes a third time, the Americans will face the winner of Belgium and Senegal. The Belgians downed the Americans 5-2 in a March friendly, scoring four unanswered after Weston McKennie’s 39th-minute opener. Each side played about half of its usual starters. And while Belgium scorched New Zealand in its group stage finale, it suffered through a goalless draw with Iran and a 1-1 stalemate with Egypt, a pair of less-talented opponents. This is not the Belgium of 2018, when it placed third.
As for Senegal, the U.S. played quite well in a 3-2 victory over the African power in its second-to-last World Cup friendly.
It’s been 24 years since the U.S won a World Cup knockout-round match. The potential history makers are in position to end that drought tonight.
Grant Freking is in his eighth year of FC Cincinnati coverage for Cincinnati Magazine.
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