Originally we were going to take off the bye this week along with the Bengals, who sat on the couch last Sunday and watched egregious refereeing cost them positioning in the AFC North. (Both Pittsburgh and Cleveland benefited from ridiculous decisions.) But with the Silicon Valley 49ers on the schedule this week—the Niners are to San Francisco as the Bengals are to Columbus—and having lost back to back games, plus with QB Brock Purdy’s status up in the air, it seems prudent to preview the matchup since it’s suddenly a crucial one for both teams.
Much more so for the Bengals, of course, given their early struggles. At 3-3, Cincinnati has sorta climbed out from the hole they dug for themselves, but given the difficulties of the division (see above) and the continued frustrations on the offensive end, a loss in California might undo the recent good vibes. The schedule thereafter doesn’t lighten much, though the Bills and Texans, the next two opponents, don’t appear quite so formidable as they did a couple of weeks back. Find a way past San Francisco, and suddenly a sizable win streak seems possible.
The fact remains that we all believe the Bengals are a championship contender. If that’s actually the case, though, the team should be able to go toe to toe with anyone, including the 49ers. “It’s going to be a challenge,” as Joe Burrow said about the Niners, but then again Cincinnati will be a challenge for San Francisco—at least they damn well ought to be. If they roll over out west, then perhaps it’s time we reorient our expectations for the 2023 Bengals.
As mentioned, the Niners have gone from invincible to inconsistent in the last fortnight. After a 42-10 savaging of the Cowboys, S.F. went to Cleveland in a rainstorm (when did northern Ohio become the Pacific Northwest?) and fell to P.J. Walker and the damn Browns thanks to a missed field goal at the gun and a legion of other mistakes. Then on Monday Night Football, Kirk Cousins (aka Purple Andy Dalton for his prime time lack of accomplishment) carved them up and the Vikings won in a 22-17 upset.
That result was a painful one for all of us who would have far preferred to face a fat and happy S.F. rather than a mad and focused club. It’s hard enough to fly across the country to tangle with a top team—now they’re pissed off as well.
And, yes, the Niners are still a top team. San Francisco remains second in DVOA, the efficiency stat you can find at FTN fantasy.com, with Cincinnati No. 21 after the bye week. Well wait, you ask, what about lately? After all, the Bengals have won two straight and S.F. has lost two straight. Well, we also do a weighted DVOA that puts more emphasis on recent results, where the Bengals move up to 18th, while the Niners … remain second.
While Purdy has gotten criticized for daring to finally lose a couple of games after a spotless start to his unlikely career, he hasn’t been the main reason his team lost. It’s not like S.F. has been slowed exactly—they put up 325 total yards on the Vikes. But a red zone fumble by star running back Christian McCaffery (this is the first time he’s fumbled twice in a season in his career) and a pair of Purdy interceptions helped limit them to just 17 points.
Yards were harder to come by in Cleveland, but they struggled to score there as well when the opportunities arose (the missed field goals were of course key). But Purdy did drive the Niners into position to win the game. A couple of injuries to key players, WR/RB Deebo Samuel and all-World left tackle Trent Williams, have hurt their usual excellence, but Kyle Shanahan’s schemes haven’t been stopped.
And now it seems Purdy may be out as well, after suffering concussion symptoms on the flight back from Minneapolis. Presuming he can’t race through the protocol, Cincinnati will see Sam Darnold, a talented but mistake-prone QB on his third team since being a top 5 draft pick back in 2018. The Bengals faced a fair number of back-up QBs last season and found it wasn’t always a good thing: Defenses can’t help but let down when the opposing starter isn’t in there. And the Niners will get a boost knowing everyone else needs to step up his game.
Either way, the Bengals will need to score, and it’s the defense that’s let the 49ers down. The Niners have been gashed on the ground the last two weeks, first by the Nick Chubb-less Browns (160 yards) and then by the Vikings (six-plus yards per carry). Meanwhile, their Nick Bosa-led pass rush was mitigated by the Vikings in part by excellent communication along the front (they put on a slide protection clinic) and a devoted effort in chip-blocking the ends, but also because Minnesota wasn’t playing from behind in must-throw situations. They did a great job of staying out of obvious passing downs and played the game on their tempo, rather than catching up with Frisco’s.
Burrow and Co. can certainly take something from that gameplan, though the status of Orlando Brown’s twitchy groin will be important in executing it. Getting out to an early lead will be critical to stay out of situations where Burrow has to rely on moving around on That Calf.
The Niners are also notorious front-runners. When they can dominate early and get out in front, they seem like a legitimate Super Bowl squad. But take a lead into the endgame, and they’re much less formidable. Make that feeble: Monday night’s loss dropped S.F. to 0-36 under Shanahan when down eight or more points in the fourth quarter (including playoffs). Only the Panthers (45) have a longer streak going in that stat. Coming back to win games late is obviously a trait that separates good from great, and the Niners haven’t shown an ability to do that.
Of course, being up by more than a touchdown late in the contest is the trick. Cincinnati will have to score early and often on that suddenly wobbly defense. There are whispers out in the Bay that, despite all the talent on hand, the unit is not the same since defensive coordinator Demeco Ryans left to take the head job in Houston. That’s likely true, but Bosa, Fred Warner, and the others remain formidable.
Cincinnati can’t plan on merely chucking it around. A fortified ground attack, as the Browns and Vikings showed, has the dual effect of keeping the Niners offense off the field and out of rhythm, a crucial aspect of Shanahan’s brilliance. Stacking up 150 rushing yards may be beyond their capabilities, but merely being able to run it 25 or so times will be an indication that Cincinnati is playing the game on its terms, not San Francisco’s.
I’d kill to find out that during the bye Zac Taylor and his staff put in some multiple tight end looks to give the Niners a taste of their own medicine. Shanahan outflanks opponents by moving around and deploying his tight ends in multiple looks, while Cincinnati barely acknowledges their existence. That’s a bit of an overstatement for effect, but the truth is the Bengals could use an element of surprise in order to get that all-important early lead. Stunning the Niners through a tight-end-heavy attack might just do the trick.
The last time Lou Anarumo faced Shanahan, the Jimmy Garappolo-led attack moved the ball well, though in crunch time the Bengals defense keyed a Burrow comeback with some big stops before falling in overtime. Red zone defense, as we saw against Seattle, will be important once more: Keeping S.F. from the paint will be the key.
Given the recent trajectories, the Niners are surprisingly a much bigger story. While it’s hard to conjure a three-game losing streak, few of us imagined a 1-3 start to the season in Cincinnati either. It’s a week-to-week league, and S.F. will surely be better, even with Darnold at the helm.
Still, the Bengals have yet to play their best game. It may take an A-plus effort, but just because their opponent has stubbed its toe recently doesn’t mean Cincinnati should refrain from stomping on that swollen digit all day.
Robert Weintraub heads up Bengals coverage for Cincinnati Magazine and has written for The New York Times, Grantland, Slate, Deadspin, and Football Outsiders. Follow him on Twitter at @robwein. Listen to him on Mo Egger’s show on 1530AM every Thursday at 5:20 p.m.
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