The dog days of August are here, and the Cincinnati Reds are still barking. They’re not surging, exactly. Not dominating. But they’re still standing. And in a National League Wild Card race where one team is imploding, another is wobbling, and no one seems eager to slam the door, maybe standing will be enough. Maybe?
For much of this season, the Reds have looked destined for irrelevance. They’ve been treading water around .500, sometimes looking good, sometimes looking terrible. But yet here we are: 62–58 after Monday’s loss to Philly, just 2 games out of the third and final Wild Card spot. Sure, Cincinnati’s continued presence in the race has less to do with their own brilliance and more to do with the spectacular collapse of the New York Mets, who have lost seven straight and 11 of 12, a far cry from early June when they had the NL’s best record.
But still! They’re literally in a playoff race in the month of August! Maybe the path to October is less about going on a heater and more about outlasting the Mets’ freefall, but who cares? The Reds are still playing meaningful baseball with 42 games remaining in the season. After three decades of betrayal, failure, and disaster, we need to enjoy the moment.
Unfortunately, those final 42 games are going to be a gauntlet. Based on opponents’ winning percentage, Cincinnati has the toughest remaining slate in the majors (.532). Of their final 42 games, 24 come against teams currently at or above .500.
It starts now. The Redlegs opened a six-game homestand against the NL East-leading Phillies (69–49) last night, and the Central-leading Brewers (73–44), owners of the best record in baseball, come to town next. Then comes a critical West Coast swing (three with the Angels, three with the Diamondbacks, three with the Dodgers) and back home to face St. Louis. September offers no relief: Blue Jays, Mets, Padres, A’s, the Cardinals again, Cubs, Pirates, and, just to twist the knife, Milwaukee again to close the year.
A playoff berth might require stealing series from the likes of Philadelphia, Milwaukee, San Diego, and New York while also banking wins against Pittsburgh, Oakland, and perhaps the Cardinals if they fade. The Reds can’t afford to let opportunities against bottom-feeders slip away; they also can’t afford to get buried in the head-to-head tiebreakers against direct competitors.
Unfortunately, management didn’t make the kind of moves at the trade deadline that will put the club in the best position to make a real playoff push. But, hey, let’s try to be optimistic here. Gold Glove third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes arrived from Pittsburgh, stabilizing the infield defense that’s been a problem all season long. Hayes is the real deal with the glove and he has been fun to watch. Unfortunately, he may literally have the worst bat in the entire league, and his presence pushed Noelvi Marte, who has continued to show that he’s a legitimate big league bat, into a new home in right field. It remains to be seen whether that will be a successful experiment, although early returns are encouraging.
The Reds also acquired Miguel Andujar, who helps the lineup against left-handed pitching and gives Terry Francona a bench weapon capable of turning games with a single swing. Francona can now mix and match his DH spot based on the opposing starter: Austin Hays, Gavin Lux, Jake Fraley, and Will Benson (if he ever returns from AAA purgatory) can all be deployed more strategically, with Andujar ready to pounce on lefties in late innings. The difference between pinch-hitting Andujar and pinch-hitting Santiago Espinal in a critical moment is the difference between a threat and a hope. (And hope is not a strategy, as I’ve reminded you many times over the years.)
There was far less deadline maneuvering than Reds fans had hoped, so once again the most impactful “addition” will have to come from within. Hunter Greene, Cincinnati’s ace, returns Wednesday against the Phillies after missing more than two months with a groin strain. As you all know, when Greene is right, he changes the conversation. He’s literally one of the best pitchers in baseball when healthy.
His running mate Nick Lodolo is injured, sidelined by another blister. But, if we’re being optimistic, Lodolo could be back by August 20. All-Star Andrew Abbott is pitching like a Cy Young contender. Brady Singer has been durable. Zack Littell and Nick Martinez can toggle between rotation and bullpen. And then there’s Chase Burns, the rookie with the electric fastball and the growing legend: four double-digit strikeout games in his first eight starts. I’m so excited to see what he can do in the coming seasons.
Unfortunately, Burns is going to be on an innings limit the rest of the way. He may end up in the bullpen in September or maybe they’ll shut him down entirely. But here I’m going to dream about late September. Imagine Greene, Lodolo, and Abbott starting games and Burns coming in as a two-inning missile against the heart of an order. Burns needs to be a starter long-term, but I can’t say I’m not intrigued by the possibility of him being a bullpen hammer, for this one season anyway.
Right now, the Cubs, Padres, and Mets hold the three Wild Card spots. The Cubs’ offense has cooled considerably. It’s pretty clear that the Padres, armed with new deadline additions like Mason Miller, are the most dangerous of this bunch. The Mets? We’re all rooting for a continued collapse, but fans of the Cardinals and Giants are pulling for the same thing. The Reds will have to outplay those clubs, as well.
FanGraphs pegs Cincinnati’s playoff odds at roughly 12 percent. I guess that’s low enough to temper the hype, if we were being rational. But we’re Reds fans. We’re rarely rational. Those odds are close enough that one 10–3 run could vault them into position. The flip side, of course, is that a poorly timed 4–12 skid could end the conversation by mid-September. We’ve seen that movie before.
Mark this on your calendar: The most important stretch will be September 5–10, when the Reds face the Mets in Cincinnati and then travel to San Diego. If they’re still within striking distance at that point, those six games could decide everything.
Listen, the Reds aren’t favorites here, as much as I want to believe otherwise. But MLB has watered down the playoff system, giving average teams (like the Redlegs) a shot at postseason glory, and the Reds have been given another gift courtesy of the Mets’ nosedive and the softness of the NL’s middle class. I’m not going over to Draft Kings to place any bets. For the Reds to make it across the finish line and qualify for the playoffs, they’ll have to win the games they should win and steal a few they shouldn’t. And maybe it will take the Mets continuing to be the Mets. Either way, the stretch run should be interesting.
Over the long history of baseball, every season’s dog days are about survival. For the Reds, this year, they’re about possibility. I want to believe! Somehow, in this roller-coaster season that has tested them, stretched them, and left them for dead more than once, Cincinnati is still here. They’re still standing, still in the fight. And that, in August, in the Queen City—after years upon years of disappointment—is really all we can ask for.
I’m not ready for the Bengals just yet.
Chad Dotson helms Reds coverage at Cincinnati Magazine and is co-author of “The Big 50: The Men and Moments That Made the Cincinnati Reds,” revised, updated, and available in bookstores now. His newsletter about Cincinnati sports can be found at chaddotson.com.
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