These days, the 2024 MLB Draft is looking like a historic one. These players were drafted less than two years ago, but five of the top 10 picks already look like future All-Stars. It says a lot about Chase Burns that, with as much talent as the Reds had to choose from in 2024, they made the right pick when they grabbed him at No. 2.
Sure, Travis Bazzana is already one of the best players on the Guardians, Nick Kurtz of the Athletics is the hottest slugger in the AL West, Jac Caglianone of the Royals could become one of the game’s best sluggers, JJ Wetherholt is one of the best players on the Cardinals, and Konnor Griffin of the Pirates signed a $140-million contract extension. Yet there’s a good chance Burns will end up as the best player in this group.
The last month hasn’t been kind to the Reds, and on Saturday they fell below .500 for the first time since Opening Day. At the same time, where would they be without Burns? During a stretch between April 26 and May 26, the Reds totaled 10 wins and Burns earned four of them himself.
The Reds’ biggest problems right now—and the reasons they’ve crashed to last place in the NL Central—are their thin pitching staff and bad bullpen. Burns’ ability to pitch deep into games and be effective has prevented those flaws from being exposed even more. He’s allowed more than two runs in a start just once all year and went at least six innings in six of his last seven starts.
Burns takes the mound tonight in San Diego, looking like a 2026 All-Star and a future ace. “You can see that he wants to be really, really good,” says Reds veteran pitcher Brady Singer. “He’s obviously really, really good. He’s just excited to go out there and have success.”
Burns has led the Reds rotation during a season where Hunter Greene hasn’t pitched yet, Nick Lodolo didn’t pitch until May due to a blister issue, Andrew Abbott’s April was the worst stretch of his career, and Rhett Lowder and Brandon Williamson have missed time. The Reds had to put a lot of responsibility on Burns’ shoulders, and he’s carried the weight well.
Burns has been able to do that at 23 years old, and he’s still one of the youngest starting pitchers in MLB. “I want to be known as someone who can help the team win and hopefully be a frontrunning starter for this team in the future,” he says. “Every time I step onto the mound, we have a chance to win today.”
Burns also feels like he’s just scratching the surface. He’s still figuring out aspects of his routine between starts, still getting a feel for specific teams and specific hitters, and still experiencing a lot of firsts. And he’s just starting to build up confidence in a third pitch.
Typically, big league starting pitchers can’t get by with just two pitches. Because Burns’ fastball and slider are so special, he’s been able to do that so far. But in the long run he knows he’ll need a changeup. He has gone to Greene and Chris Paddack for advice about that pitch.
During Spring Training, Burns and Greene discussed how important the changeup could be for Paddack. “It’s cool to see the process and what he thinks about it,” says Burns. “We’re going to keep getting better.”
Burns knew that he needed the pitch, but he wasn’t loving the grip he was using. He discussed that recently with Paddack, who showed him his grip and had him practice it by throwing a softball. It’s the same process Paddack used to learn the pitch in high school.
Burns used that grip last week against the Royals, and it was the best his changeup has looked all season. “Picking and choosing when to use that throughout at-bats will be really big for him in the longevity of his career,” says Paddack. “The fact that he threw eight or nine of them against a really good Royals lineup, that says it all. He got some swings and misses and some takes. It makes the slider and the fastball at the top for him that much better.”
After his most recent start, Burns had the fourth-best ERA and the seventh-best strikeout rate among qualifying pitchers. If the changeup becomes a solid pitch, if Burns is healthy and keeps learning more about pitching in the big leagues, he has a chance to grow into one of the game’s best starting pitchers.
There were other tantalizing talents in that 2024 MLB Draft, but Burns’ ceiling sets him apart. The Reds couldn’t be happier to have him, and they’re banking on him being great both now and into the future.
Charlie Goldsmith has covered the Reds and Bengals since 2020, and his newsletter on the teams can be found at charlieschalkboard.substack.com.
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