The Cincinnati Reds’ eight-game losing streak that started the month of May was mostly a product of inconsistent pitching. Then, over the weekend, the Reds broke that streak and took two of three against the Houston Astros because that inconsistency turned around. You can pick apart the highs and lows of this Reds season, but the barometer for where this team is at and how it will perform going forward comes down to the reliability of the starting rotation and the bullpen.
Back in April, when the Reds were really humming, Chase Burns and Rhett Lowder made up one of the best young pitching duos in the big leagues. All five starters were giving the team a chance to win every night. Emilio Pagán was holding down saves, and the bullpen had the best ERA in baseball.
May started off on much shakier ground for the pitching staff, leading to the losing streak. First, a short start from Brandon Williamson on April 29 put some extra stress on the bullpen. Then, over the following weekend, Brady Singer and Rhett Lowder gave the Reds their shortest starts of the season to date. The bullpen was getting worn down from overuse, and some fatigue started to show as Reds relievers struggled throwing strikes and walked too many batters.
Injuries started to pile up in the rotation. Williamson will miss the next two months with left shoulder fatigue. Then Lowder landed on the injured list with a shoulder issue following a shaky start last Thursday against the Chicago Cubs.
Emilio Pagán had been banged up and was dealing with hamstring tightness for a few weeks. Last Tuesday in Chicago, he suffered a Grade 2 hamstring strain that will keep him out for four to eight weeks. With Pagán struggling and now on the injured list, the Reds have had a hard time closing out games.
The eight-game losing streak really all boiled down to pitching: Two bad days from Singer, two poor starts from a banged-up Lowder, three walk-off losses against the Cubs, and a loss to the Pirates where walks came back to haunt setup reliever Tony Santillan.
While the pitching led to the Reds’ crash to last place in the NL Central standings, some trends against the Astros showed the team’s potential to make up ground. The turnaround began with starts where Chase Burns and Andrew Abbott looked like aces, and the return of Nick Lodolo from the injured list should also really help in the long run.
On Saturday, Burns threw six innings of one-run baseball. His 2.11 ERA ranks seventh in MLB among qualified pitchers, and he’s evolving into a frontline starter at 23 years old. What was so encouraging about his start was that he had a great game on a night where he wasn’t able to generate many swings and misses. “But I was dialing in and hitting spots,” he said after the game. “Every time I threw a slider I felt like I didn’t get it down enough. (Catcher Jose Trevino) said, Don’t be mad because you’re getting outs. I’m trying to go out there and put zeros on the board. That’s the game.”
The following day, Abbott pitched six shutout innings and earned the win. He went through the worst rut of his career earlier in the season but credits his confidence, his aggression with his fastball, and his ability to spin his off-speed pitches as key factors in his bounce-back. In three starts since April 30, he has lowered his ERA from 6.59 to 4.39. “I feel like I’m getting there,” says Abbott. “A few things to iron out. You never get complacent in this game. Definitely a good step.”
While the Reds will miss Lowder and Williamson as long as they’re out, they’ll also benefit from Lodolo’s return. While the final line from his season debut wasn’t flashy (5 ⅓ innings and four runs), there was a lot of encouragement about how he looked after coming back from a blister issue. Lodolo has as much talent as any Reds pitcher.
Roles in the bullpen have also started to settle in in the aftermath of Pagán’s injury. Graham Ashcraft has really stepped up, and Francona used him in the highest-leverage spot of games over the last week. Veteran lefty Brock Burke has also impressed.
With the season at the 25% mark, the Reds offense still has plenty of work to do. The lineup has a lot of moving pieces, and roles could change. The pitching is going to have to carry a lot of weight for the Reds to have a successful season. While the eight-game losing streak highlighted the pressure that’s on the pitching staff, the series win over the Astros was a reminder of how much talent is on that staff.
Charlie Goldsmith has covered the Reds and Bengals since 2020, and his newsletter on the teams can be found at charlieschalkboard.substack.com.
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