Through six league matches, the phrase “yeah, but” is creeping into the conversation around the 2024 edition of FC Cincinnati. Yeah, the Orange and Blue remain alone atop the Eastern Conference following a 1-1 draw at Charlotte Saturday night. Yeah, they have the best defensive record (three goals allowed) in MLS.
But only three East sides have played at least six league matches and scored fewer goals: Orlando, New York City, and New England. Those are the 13th-, 14th-, and 15th-place teams in the 15-team Eastern Conference.
There’s something to be said for steel and spirit in the midst of an abysmal stretch of finishing, though. Aaron Boupendza’s 92nd-minute equalizer in Charlotte, the latest non-penalty-kick tying goal in club history, is a testament to the club’s mental toughness.
“You know that Cincinnati’s never out of the game,” said DeAndre Yedlin, who assisted on Boupendza’s score and joined FCC on March 4 after over two seasons with Inter Miami. “That’s what this team has. Playing against this team last year and the year before… it’s annoying to play against, but it’s nice to play with because everybody’s honest and just keeps going together.”
For now, spirit will have to suffice with goals in short supply.
Expected goals (xG) is a metric that helps paint a fuller picture of a team’s creative and scoring prowess. According to FCC, entering the Charlotte match, FC Cincinnati’s offense had registered almost seven xG through five games—as opposed five actual goals—making the club one of the “unluckiest” teams in terms of xG to goals scored.
New striker Corey Baird, the author of 14 goals in all competitions in 2023 and now playing next to one of the league’s premier set-up men in Lucho Acosta, was seventh in the league in xG among players who had not scored. Baird was denied at the doorstep again Saturday.
Blessed with a golden chance to score on a brilliant cutback pass from Yedlin, Boupendza got his footwork wrong and scuffed the opportunity. He got it right on another slick feed from Yedlin for the equalizer, though.
Some teams and players consistently outperform metrics like xG in any sport. Some routinely underperform. Some are unlucky, but just for one season. With 28 league matches remaining, it’s still too early to determine which bucket FCC falls into.
“We need to be more patient in the right moments to find the right pass. We need to be more decisive in how we run to goal and how we create a shot,” said head coach Pat Noonan. “We’re getting into good spots, but now we just need to talk through and keep looking at how we can be better with the decision making in those moments. But the guys have created enough and consistently enough where we shouldn’t be urgent to change anything.”
Again, fortunately for FC Cincinnati, the season is just six league games (and 10 total matches) old. A firm test awaits on Saturday night against the rebooted New York Red Bulls, just a point behind FCC in the East.
Grant Freking writes FC Cincinnati coverage for Cincinnati Magazine. You can follow him on Twitter at @GrantFreking.
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