Yay! We get to go through all of that again one more time! Yes, the Bengals stayed alive with a 30-24 overtime win over the Denver Broncos on Saturday evening, an instant classic that was beyond stressful, replete with the usual Joe Burrow brilliance (39 for 49/412/three TDs), questionable coaching decisions, an overmatched offensive line, some huge plays at crucial times, and, above all, Tee Higgins having a monster game in his potential Paycor Stadium swansong.
Higgins caught 11 balls for 131 yards and three TDs in a signature performance, including the bomb down the left sideline in overtime and the game-winner on the next play, giving Cincinnati the had-to-have-it victory. Ironically, Tee was incredibly close to being the goat. His fumble with about five minutes left seemed to set up Denver for a potential game-winning kick. But he was rescued by Germaine Pratt’s interception and became the man of the hour after a crazy set of events that evoked last season’s overtime win over the Vikings (also held on a Saturday). That too was a miraculous, highly entertaining win featuring Higgins Heroics that kept the team alive, if only momentarily, for the postseason. In the wake of that game many claimed it as their favorite regular season home win. I wonder if it’s been superseded now.
The final TD was, amazingly enough, the first and only time the Bengals have scored an offensive touchdown in overtime (they got a pick six by Corey Sawyer back in 1998 to beat the Lions). They missed an easy field goal and survived two Broncos possessions in overtime, thanks to Bo Nix being unable to choose between open receivers on a couple of critical third downs—classic 2024 Bengals. So was giving up a Hail Mary to send the game to OT (I still say Marvin Mims was out of bounds), missing an easy field goal in that overtime, being turned away twice on downs deep in Denver territory, giving up seven sacks and not even punting until overtime, having an insane Burrow play that resulted in a touchdown pass called back on a penalty. Nothing is ever easy for this group in victory or defeat.
So we now come to the 7-10 split portion of the season, where the Bengals not only need one more victory, their fifth straight, against their historical boogeyman from Pittsburgh, but must rely on the Chiefs—of all teams—to win despite resting their stars and the utterly dysfunctional Jets to defeat Miami. Over at FTN Fantasy we give Cincinnati a 4.6% chance of pulling this off. I’d personally put it closer to 15%, still highly unlikely but conceivable.
Part of that slight bit of optimism is that K.C.—even without Mahomes, Kelce, Jones, and their ilk—is still a good club, still coached by Andy Reid, and still maintains total dominance of the Broncos. The Chiefs have beaten Denver an incredible 17 of the last 18 times they’ve met, dating back to 2015. Yes, the Broncos won last season, and a blocked field goal at the gun was required for K.C. to win their first encounter this year. But Carson Wentz (backing up Mahomes) will have something to prove in his showcase game, and as we saw Saturday last, Denver isn’t exactly a dominant squad. The Chiefs are also chasing history and losing to Denver, even in a relatively meaningless affair, doesn’t fit into that picture.
As for the Jets, sure, they’re a pox upon their broken fanbase (and as a native New Yorker I consider myself extremely fortunate not to have slipped into that group as a youth), and relying on Gang Green for anything is a fool’s errand. But late Sunday afternoon temperatures in the swamps of Jersey should be trending toward sub-freezing, which historically is a problem for the South Beachers. Fish quarterback Tua Tagovailoa remains a “maybe” to play, and wouldn’t it be appropriate for backup Tyler Huntley, last seen coughing up the “Fumble in the Jungle,” to deliver a stinker that helps the Bengals.
For my money, the hardest portion of this Three-Card Monte is, of course, the Bengals winning in Pittsburgh. For some reason it feels like that part is being taken for granted, perhaps due to the giddy momentum of the four-game winning streak and still having this chance in the season finale. But these are the Steelers, and the game is in Pittsburgh! How many big games do we have to lose to those guys before we learn not to be cheery before kickoff?
The parallels with the 2006 season finale are eerie. After losing in unimaginable, 2024-esque fashion against Denver (!)—the Brad St. Louis blown PAT snap in the penultimate game—Cincinnati needed to beat the Steelers and have the Chiefs win, the Broncos lose, and the Jets lose, in this case. Incredibly enough, the action elsewhere broke Cincinnati’s way, with the results we needed happening. But in a back-and-forth battle, the Bengals lost in overtime after missing a potential game-winning field goal (stupid Shayne Graham) at the end of regulation. Ben Roethlisberger beat Cincinnati with a short pass to Antonio Holmes, who broke a bunch of tackles to go 67 yards and win it in walkoff fashion.
These 10-6 Steelers are scuffling of late. Their pass rush is thought of as stalwart, and of course T.J. Watt, Alex Highsmith, and Cam Heyward are tough matchups. But their Adjusted Sack Rate is just 25th (the Broncos are first, and we saw what Burrow did to them). On the other hand, they’ll be going against Cincinnati’s beaten-up O-line, likely to feature Cody Ford at right tackle for an injured Amarius Mims, Cordell Volson back at left guard, and One-Leg Orlando Brown at left tackle. Chase Brown, whose sprained ankle messed up the endgame against the Broncos, seems unlikely to go as well, and we know what the Steelers did to Cincinnati’s defense in their first meeting, a 44-point explosion.
This Bengals’ season has been so defensively deficient and excruciating to witness that it feels fated their playoff chances will be determined by the team losing one more heartbreaker—on a tackling breakdown, 2006-style, no doubt. Missing the playoffs due to a bunch of backups and yucky teams playing elsewhere doesn’t feel like Cincinnati’s destiny. It’s in our hands, for better or worse.
This kind of result would happen on Saturday, giving us all a sleepless night before the inevitable Chiefs and Jets victories, but at least we’ll have a free Sunday without being chained to scoreboard watching and rooting for a pair of unvaccinated quarterbacks. That said, I’ve been watching these on an endless loop all week…
Happy New Year everyone, and we will meet again in these digital pages one way or another next week!
Robert Weintraub heads up Bengals coverage for Cincinnati Magazine and has written for The New York Times, Grantland, Slate, and Deadspin. Follow him on Twitter at @robwein. Listen to him on Mo Egger’s show on 1530AM every Thursday at 5:20 p.m.
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