The Bengals Eye Post-Spain Steeler Payback

No trade deadline moves? No worries! It’s on to a first-place showdown with Pittsburgh on Sunday night.
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Vamos, Bengals! Sunday’s 34-17 whipping of the Atlanta Falcons in Madrid was not just a dominant display that ran Cincy’s record to 6-2 after the 2-2 start that had Stripes fans in a dither. (That’s four straight wins since I reminded you to chill out). It was an international, stand-alone showcase for the striking power of the Joe Burrow to Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins attack force—aka The Greatest Show on Underground Elevated Grass.

Burrow threw for three TDs and fell into the end zone for a fourth score. Chase amassed 155 yards on 10 catches, 142 of it in a first-half blitz that left old friend A.J. Terrell, onetime Clemson corner turned Falcon pigeon, in a daze. Higgins caught two touchdowns of his own, one that resembled your uncle playing touch with the little kids at the family BBQ. And in the aftermath, Tee gave a little kid in the front row a moment that he will remember forever.

As an Atlanta resident, I wish to enthusiastically thank the Bengals for causing great tsuris for the locals and not creating a situation where I’d have to stew on a defeat for four long seasons. Indeed, Cincy hasn’t lost to Atlanta since 2010, a lifetime in “I don’t want my neighbors to talk trash to me” units.

It all unfolded perfectly at an iconic venue where so many great players have created enduring legacies. Whether you made the trip (sadly, I got sick and couldn’t go) or woke up for a bit of Sunday Morning Football, it was as enjoyable and stress-free as any Cincinnati game in recent memory. Burrow is an MVP favorite, the Bengals are near-playoff locks (97 percent odds by FTNFantasy calculations), and we’re days away from a rematch with the hated Steelers in a game that shapes up as the most important contest of the season.

So naturally, barely 48 hours later, everyone is up in arms over the failure to make a deal at the trade deadline.

Tuesday was a two-pronged embarrassment for those inclined to view it negatively. First, Cincinnati seemed to have dealt a sixth-round choice in next year’s draft for Philly edge rusher Arnold Ebeketie, ironically a former Falcon who Cincy looked into signing this past spring. The terms were agreed to, and the swap was leaked to the media. Only then was the fine print examined, and someone in the front office realized the trade would cost the third-round compensatory pick Cincinnati should get for losing Trey Hendrickson to free agency. Deal off!

Then, the 4 p.m. deadline came and went without the Bengals making any trade, even as Jacksonville went “all-in” (time to ban that phrase outside of Texas Hold’em), including a deal for old pal Jessie Bates. Kansas City, Buffalo, Denver and Minnesota also made headline moves. Same old Bengals!

I’m happy to rip the franchise when they deserve it, which is often enough, but I’m more sanguine about these non-moves. In the Ebeketie case, it was mainly a matter of fluid timing and that often-ignored interregnum between a trade being “announced” and being “made official.” Just because this or that “NFL Insider” posts that the trade is happening doesn’t mean it is. I’d feel much worse if it had actually gone through and only then had Cincinnati realized the ramifications.

To me the problem is the unnecessary overcomplicating of the compensatory pick system, along with overvaluing those picks in the first place. There are rarely enough players worthy of drafting with the regular 32 x 7 rounds formula, so the awarding of a couple of dozen extra picks each year has gotten out of hand. And teams are far too eager to either galaxy-brain their transactions by pointing out the sop of a comp pick or build entire negotiation strategies around them. Comp picks have gotten out of hand, and it’s time to abolish them. (Bangs gavel!)

Meanwhile, count me out of the grousing over not making a trade. Sure, I’d have taken Ebeketie or some other depth piece for a late-round pick. Can’t hurt, even if it’s unlikely to help much. But Cincinnati was never making the “big move,” like they did in the spring dealing for Dexter Lawrence. Having gone through a draft without a first round pick, there was little chance Duke Tobin and Co. were going to unload a premium selection next year.

Truth is, few trade deadline moves pay off in any meaningful way—more tend to blow up in the face of the acquiring team (see the Sauce Gardner deal from last season). It’s difficult to ask a player who has been inculcated in a different system since at least the spring to suddenly switch over into a new scheme on the fly, with brand-new teammates and coaches, in a new city where he likely knows no one. The anger over standing pat is mainly driven by content creators with daily hours of time to fill, for whom all the potential trade talk, no matter how unlikely, is manna from heaven, as well as the fantasy football armchair GM, for whom every player is merely an avatar and not an actual human being.

The Bengals are red-hot, fresh off a bonding trip overseas that included their best on-field performance of the season, and are building toward an enormous game with their bitter rivals. Perhaps now isn’t the best time to mess with team chemistry? Cincinnati has weaknesses, like every team, but they aren’t glaringly bad. Often times the best move is not to make one; zugzwang, as it’s known in chess. Ask the Brewers if they are unhappy about not trading for a star at the MLB deadline, as social media demanded they do.

Anyway, it’s all spilt milk under the bridge now, or something like that. On to the Steelers!

The Sparta to our Athens comes to town Sunday night for a big one with all the NBC trimmings. The teams are tied at 6-2 atop the division, with Pittsburgh somehow getting a bye week while Cincinnati went abroad. Disgustingly, Pittsburgh has yet again failed to realize that they’re supposed to suck. Despite employing the Ancient Mariner, Aaron Rodgers, at quarterback, the Black and Gold are moving the ball on the ground behind Jaylen Warren and an offensive line that was transformed when rookie Max Iheanachor took over at right tackle and Brock Hoffman helmed right guard. Both have been up and down, but prior to that the starboard side of their O-line was a disaster.

Warren is averaging just under six yards per carry, and he gashed Cincinnati for 127 on the ground back in September. Pittsburgh’s rushing DVOA is 11th in the NFL. They don’t throw it nearly as well (22nd), and once again the team is wanting at wide receiver, though rookie Germie Bernard out of Alabama is living up to his draft billing as a reliable and shifty target. Rodgers, to his faint credit, isn’t actively hurting the team, playing smart football and making just enough plays to keep the run game viable. Still, he’s 27th in EPA/dropback and 24th in DVOA. Don’t believe the media that equate Pittsburgh’s good record with Rodgers “playing well this year.”

As usual, Pittsburgh’s defense is excellent: top-rated against the run, 11th against the pass, and seventh overall. This sets up the classic strength against strength matchup as Cincy’s best-in-the-league offense goes up against the usual villains Watt, Heyward, Ramsey, and Highsmith.

Trading Joey Porter Jr. to Dallas (hey look, another trade that hasn’t paid much dividends) actually improved Pittsburgh’s secondary. They’re third in the NFL against enemy No. 1 wideouts, though Chase had 98 yards and a score at the confluence, and they haven’t faced many other elite pass catchers. Higgins, a perennial mismatch against the opponent’s lesser cover corners, had 90 yards as well. Pittsburgh is 18th against No. 2 WRs, and it remains to be seen if new coach Mike McCarthy consistently orders his DBs to Hack-a-Tee like Mike Tomlin did.

Peering beyond the game, Cincinnati’s schedule is littered with presumed Ws, a major reason why their playoff odds are so high and why a victory Sunday would put them in prime position to capture the AFC North for the first time since 2022. So this nationally televised encounter with our bitterest rival goes beyond the usual stakes.

Cincinnati shoulda/woulda/coulda won the game back in Week 3. Time for payback. Do that, and the trade deadline “debacle” will be a distant memory.

Robert Weintraub heads up Bengals coverage for Cincinnati Magazine and has written for The New York Times, Grantland, Slate, and Deadspin. Follow him on X at @robwein.