I fired off a tweet back in 2018 making what I considered a fairly obvious argument: The Reds should consider trading their best pitching prospect at the time while his value was at its peak, before injuries complicated matters. Young pitchers are fragile. The history of this game is littered with arms that looked like sure things until they weren’t. You have to move them while you can.
Specifically, I said that I would have liked for the Reds to have traded Hunter Greene in a package for outfielder Christian Yelich, who had been dealt from the Marlins to the Brewers that week. (That trade worked out pretty well for our division rivals, didn’t it?) My reasoning was simple: There’s no such thing as a pitching prospect. When I got the predictable pushback that Greene was a generational talent (true) that the Reds should hang onto at any cost, here was my response: “Get back to me on that when Hunter Greene blows out his elbow in two years.”
Hunter Greene saw the tweet. He did not agree with it. His response ended up on the front page of The Enquirer. And, hey, I understood his perspective: Greene was a teenager at the time, and I was in effect suggesting his employers trade him and/or that he wouldn’t be invincible forever.
Within a year, Greene underwent Tommy John surgery.
I thought about that exchange again last week. As you know, Greene will undergo season-ending surgery on a partially torn UCL, his second ligament procedure, coming after he already missed the season’s first three months recovering from bone chips removed from that same right elbow. He made five starts upon returning in July, went 2-2 with a 6.83 ERA, and then his elbow began hurting again.
The specific procedure won’t be determined until surgeons actually open things up. If things go well, he might pitch again in 2027. If it requires a full Tommy John reconstruction, we’re talking 2028 at the earliest.
Greene was the second overall pick in the 2017 draft, one of the most heralded pitching prospects in a generation. Since his 2022 debut, he’s been magnificent in flashes and has been on the injured list in every season since. When he’s healthy, he’s one of the best pitchers in the game, an All-Star before the age of 24. Completely dominant at times. But the injuries keep trailing him—shoulder, hip, elbow, groin, bone chips, and now this.
Which brings me to Chase Burns, and the question some of you are already asking: Should we be worried? Yes, of course we should be. Anyone who throws 98 miles an hour for a living and depends entirely on the integrity of a small ligament in his throwing elbow is, by definition, a source of legitimate anxiety. After watching what’s happened to Greene, it would be irrational not to feel at least some version of that worry whenever Burns takes the mound.
Like Greene, Burns was the second overall pick. He too is a flamethrower. He too is the centerpiece of the franchise’s future, as evidenced by Cincinnati’s recent investment in him.
But let’s not get ahead of ourselves. Burns has never had surgery on that arm. The only injury of his career was a right flexor strain in 2025. That’s a different structure entirely from the UCL, it was a mild strain, and even then he returned and pitched well. He’s pitching deeper into games this year with better command and a fuller arsenal. The Reds have managed his innings carefully. None of this is a guarantee, obviously, but it’s certainly a distinction from Greene, who arrived in the big leagues with that prior UCL history.
So I’m optimistic about Chase Burns! The Reds were smart to sign him to a contract extension. But the honest answer is that we just don’t know. Nobody does. There’s no such thing as a pitching prospect.
What we do know is that Burns is 13-2 with a 2.61 ERA and that the organization bet seven years and $105 million on his durability. Meanwhile, the cautionary tale is walking around the same clubhouse.
As if the Greene news didn’t bum us out enough, the Redlegs just got swept by the Washington Nationals. Our scrappy club had won four out of five series, going 12-6 since the All-Star break, bringing more of that cockroach energy that pushed them into October last year. And then they went to D.C. to face a Nationals team that had won twice in their previous 10 games before the series. Burns absorbed a 8-2 loss on Saturday that snapped his 12-game winning streak. Elly De La Cruz, Sal Stewart, and JJ Bleday combined to go 4-for-33 in the series, while the team batted .172 overall. And just like that, after briefly moving up a spot in the standings, the Redlegs are back in the cellar of the NL Central, with 25 of their next 28 games against teams currently in playoff position.
We can’t have nice things.
Sheesh, what a week. The best pitcher on the team lost his first game in months and is still the best pitcher on the team, with a brilliant future ahead of him … even if I’m more worried than ever (possibly irrationally) about that future. The guy who was supposed to be the best pitcher is heading back to the surgeon’s table and represents the danger that comes with falling in love with those tantalizing young power arms. And the rest of the team started to make us a little excited before getting put back in its place by a franchise with one of the worst records in baseball.
Back in 2018, I said there’s no such thing as a pitching prospect. I still believe that. But I’m choosing, despite all the available evidence, to believe that Burns is the exception. Mostly because Reds fans deserve to have something go their way. Right?
Chad Dotson helms Reds coverage at Cincinnati Magazine and is co-author of “The Big 50: The Men and Moments That Made the Cincinnati Reds.” His newsletter about Cincinnati sports can be found at chaddotson.com.
