I hope you enjoyed the Bengals’ bye week! We are back in action in Baltimore on Sunday, in a key divisional matchup with the 4-2 Ravens, who lost to Cleveland 13-10. Backup QB Tyler Huntley was unable to move the ball against the rugged Browns D as the Purple Birds blew yet another double-digit lead. And just as everyone predicted, the Browns reside in first place in the AFC North after six weeks of play.
As with the Bengals, and any team really, in the Narrow Margin NFL, you can easily say the Ravens could be 6-0 and just as easily say they should be 2-4. As with the Bengals, the teams Baltimore has beaten hasn’t exactly been a Murderer’s Row. The combined record of the teams the Ravens beat is 7-17, compared to 3-14 for Cincinnati. But as Bill Parcells famously said, you are what your record says you are, and 4-2 feels about right for the Ravens, especially since they’ve been without Lamar Jackson yet again.
Ah yes, Lamar, the QB who’s lived omnipresently in the heads of Bengals fans since Cincinnati passed on him in the 2018 draft. He’s back into his familiar cycle of injury/illness, with no clear timeline for return and only hazy information coming out of him and the team. It was this sort of foggy communications that helped drive a wedge between Jackson and John Harbaugh and led to the coach’s firing after last year’s debacle. Good to know things haven’t changed that much with Jesse Minter now in charge.
Obviously it’s hard to truly break down the game until we know more about Jackson’s status. He was reported to be ready for the game after missing the last two, but who really knows? Once again, he’s due for a contract extension, and as in 2021-22 Lamar doesn’t seem inclined to risk his precious bodily asset without the assurance of guaranteed money going forward. That’s not shade; I can’t say I blame him. But it certainly must be frustrating for Ravens fans. More to the point, it’s something Cincinnati must take advantage of, as we did in those halcyon aforementioned seasons.
Lamar and Joe Burrow have been fully healthy for only one of their overlapping seasons, 2024, when both were awesome but Baltimore played a semblance of defense and won the division title while Cincinnati missed the playoffs. That was the year Cincy blew both games to the Ravens, the devastating overtime home loss and the almost-as-devastating failed 2-point conversion loss in Charm City. If Lamar is out there on Sunday, it isn’t hard to envision another fireworks display along those lines.
The two teams are certainly equal. Cincinnati is fifth in team DVOA, Baltimore eighth. They are 5 and 6 in offense, 13 and 17 in defense.
The Ravens are 12th in rushing DVOA, just one slot behind the Bengals. Yes, for all the bellyaching about Cincinnati’sx run game and fear of Baltimore’s, so far they have been basically equal, in large part because the Bengals have taken on some elite run defenses thus far (four of the top eight by DVOA).
For all of Derrick Henry’s might, the Ravens are second-to-last in Power situations, defined as third/fourth down and 2 or fewer yards to go. It stands to reason they’ll attempt to keep the King out on the perimeter, where Cincinnati has struggled to contain running games, and away from the interior and Dexter Lawrence. (The Bengals D is seventh in that Power stat, by the way.
While it feels like Henry has made a career off the Bengals D, he is averaging just 80.5 yards in the eight games he’s played against Cincinnati (half with Baltimore, half with Tennessee). By contrast, he averages over 100/YPG against former division rivals Houston and Jacksonville in 16 and 15 games, respectively.
For the first time in seemingly forever, Baltimore’s passing attack has been more wideout-centric so far this year than tight end dominated. In part that’s due to Mark Andrews’ decline and Isiah Likely’s departure, both welcome developments given the Bengals defensive strengths (11th vs WRs, 29th vs TEs). Zay Flowers is a shifty YAC demon, and rookie Jakobi Lane, now healthy, will demand attention. But this feels like an area where Cincinnati will funnel attention to the middle of the field and hopefully take away Baltimore’s deep passing attack.
Much will depend on the front’s ability to dominate Baltimore’s iffy offensive line. The Ravens have used 16 different O-line combinations thus far and needed to panic-trade a second-round pick for Philly center Cam Jurgens, who may or may not be out of concussion protocol in time to make his Raven debut vs. Lawrence, Jonathan Allen, and Co. Even at less than full strength, Jurgens would allow rookie guard Vega Ioane to play his natural position, where he has been very good, and perhaps solidify the line.
It will be interesting to see if Al Golden steps out of his “no blitz” policy (the Bengals are last in the league in blitz rate by a wide margin) in order to break tendency and shake up Jackson or Huntley. Frequent slot blitzes in particular was a tactic Lou Anarumo used in the past to stop the Ravens, before they countered. In the endless thrust and parry of divisional play, it may be time for a return to some extra rushers.
Defensively, the Ravens continue to struggle to find that dominating pass rush that was the hallmark of their classic teams. That’s even with old friend Trey Hendrickson in town. True to his nature, he’s remained a good edge rusher when healthy but has missed two games and been a liability in run defense. Fortunately for the Purple Birds, tackle Nnamdi Madubuike appears to be back at full strength, judging from his excellent performance last week in Cleveland. Baltimore is 12th against the run by DVOA, but with Madubuike in there things should be tough sledding. Linebacker Roquan Smith is past his elite prime, when he tortured the Bengals, but appears to be bouncing back from last year, when he was awful.
Of course, the Bengals have always had success throwing on the Ravens, from Carson Palmer to Andy Dalton to Burrow, and that’s where their hopes of winning ultimately lie. Other than safety Kyle Hamilton, who is possibly the best player in the NFL, Baltimore’s secondary, considered a preseason strength, has been meh so far in 2026. They’ve sunk significant assets into building a secondary that can halt the Ja’Marr Chase/Tee Higgins combo, but high draft picks like Malachi Starks and Nate Wiggins have been inconsistent, and their big free agent pickup, safety Jaylinn Hawkins, has been a disaster.
Baltimore corners have no interceptions through six games. Does Marlon Humphrey, who always gets up for battles with Cincinnati’s wideouts, have another good game in him?
Burrow in his career against the Ravens has had incredible highs (the 525-yard game in 2021, for example) and some duds, like last season’s whitewash that followed his existential press conference. That doesn’t count the 2023 nightmare, when he left with the season-ending wrist injury. Overall, in Joe’s 11 career games against the Ravens he has over 3,100 yards passing, 23 TDs, and 7 interceptions—pretty damn good, despite the novelistic totality.
Special teams, almost always a strength of the Ravens under Harbaugh, at the moment is a decided advantage for the Bengals. Cincinnati is seventh by DVOA, Baltimore 24th, and kicker Tyler Loop is taking major heat for his struggles, including two fourth-quarter misses this season and his memorable botch in the 2025 finale. By contrast, Evan McPherson has been one of the best kickers in the league, and he spent the bye week watching his little brother Alex make the game-winning field goal for Auburn against top-ranked UGA.
It would be good for our collective soul if Money Mac reverses the damnable miss on a botched hold from that 2024 OT game and boots Cincinnati to a win Sunday.
So let’s hope and pray for a 33-30 Bengals win, with or without Lamar in there. Ideally he plays and we sack him so often he has to leave the fray once again. If Sexy Dexy wants to start the game by taking a personal foul for landing with his full body weight on Jackson, I’ll help pay the fine.
Robert Weintraub heads up Bengals coverage for Cincinnati Magazine and has written for The New York Times, Grantland, Slate, and Deadspin. Follow him on X at @robwein.
