It’s almost over. After the spine-tingling highs and the dastardly lows, the 2025 Major League Soccer regular season has very nearly come to an end for FC Cincinnati. The year was a good one; the Orange and Blue achieved their second best regular-season finish in their short MLS history by both position and points tally. Was it a nonstop cavalcade of beauty? Not necessarily, but second place in the Eastern Conference (at the time of writing) is nothing to sneeze at. Pat Noonan and his squad should be proud.
But now, it’s time to get serious. It’s that time of year again, that heart-rattling meat-grinder of an end of season tournament that has, for three years running now, dimmed dreams in the Queen City. The MLS playoffs are here, and the FCC faithful are once again believers—but what does the team have to do to turn this fantasy into reality?
With this in mind, I have outlined four keys to a successful FC Cincinnati playoff run in the 2025 postseason. It should be noted that these are not exactly aspects of the game that the Orange and Blue need to work on, but are, rather, things to be leaned into; at this point, with each and every game of such great importance, there is no real bandwidth for “learning moments.” It is a time not to teach, but to maximize.
Hope Roman Celentano Gets Fit, Fast
For so much of this past season, amidst injuries and rotation in other positions, Roman Celentano has been an absolute constant in Cincinnati’s starting XI between the sticks. That was until mid September, when the keeper was announced to have suffered an undisclosed leg injury. This is troubling for a variety of reasons—Celentano is a standout in the intangibles, possessing an undeniably commanding presence and nerves of steel.
But the statistics also shine a kind light upon the 25-year-old; Celentano is in the top third of MLS keepers in terms of expected goals prevented per game, and is in the top 20th percentile in terms of save percentage. While he is not a spectacular distributor, this shot-stopping play has been key for an FC Cincinnati team that has been over-performing its expected goals against this entire season.
This is by no means a fatal blow. Evan Louro, in his four games of deputizing as the number one thus far, has gone unbeaten. But with such a small sample size, it is hard to say that he will be able to maintain his good form through an entire playoff series. Roman’s return would be a blessing.
It should be noted that Matt Miazga, another key cog in Cincinnati’s system, is also out with a leg problem. But with reported recovery time, and the lanky captain’s injury history in mind, it is hard to imagine a quick return for Miazga before the very end of the postseason in any sort of realistic fashion. Nick Hagglund, this one is on to you.
Keep Up the Hot Shooting Streak
Another important factor in FC Cincinnati’s above-average expected goals this year: absolutely lights out shooting from attacking players. Evander’s ability to score from just about anywhere is well known to even casual watchers of FC Cincy, but the stats really show just how remarkable the Brazilian wonder’s efforts have been. He’s scored 17 goals this season on a total season-wide expected total of 7.6, meaning he has out-performed his expected total by ten goals. This is not only the highest over-performance of any player in his position in the entirety of MLS, but is one of the highest over-performances out of attacking midfielders in all of the world’s top professional leagues over the past 12 months. Evander is a shot-chucker sent from the heavens.
The strikers have been no slouches on the finishing front either. Kevin Denkey, in spite of his mixed form as of late, has still outperformed his expected goal tally by over four goals on the season. The returning Brenner, too, has not eclipsed his expected number, but has matched it, with a more-than-serviceable three goals in five games.
The age-old rule for expected goals numbers is that the player’s real total will eventually recede towards their projection… but that has not happened for any of FC Cincy’s stars yet. Keep shooting for the moon—good things will happen.
Trust in Samuel Gidi
For so much of the 2025 season, Cincinnati was crying out for a real midfield destroyer. For all of Tah Brian Anunga’s rock-solid efficiency, Obinna Nwobodo’s undying stamina and ball retention abilities, and Pavel Bucha’s wiley passing, the squad was missing a guy who could really rack up ball recoveries; someone who could lay deep in the middle of the park and eat space.
Enter Samuel Gidi. The Ghanaian born, Slovak-naturalised 21-year-old was acquired from Žilina in Slovakia’s top flight this past August with a reputation as a tough-as-nails yet cultured defensive midfielder. Although the sample size of his time in orange and blue is very small (he has started three games, and played one match off the bench), he is already showing himself to be exactly as billed. He has averaged over five duels won per 90 minutes in his four outings thus far, at a whopping 65% success rate. He also recovers the ball over eight times per 90, and is an adept presser. He is no slouch on the ball, either, averaging nearly 50 passes per 90 minutes at a near 90% success rate.
Samuel is the real deal. Although there may be temptations to start players with more MLS experience, those urges should be eschewed; Gidi’s presence would ease the pressure on the outside central defenders in Pat Noonan’s 3-4-2-1 formation, and would free up Pavel Bucha to focus on offensive duties. This is a slam-dunk signing, who should be a slam-dunk starter.
Put the Pressure On from the Get-Go
Game state matters for FC Cincinnati. The Orange and Blue average the sixth most points per game in the entire MLS when they have scored the first goal in a match; conversely, when conceding the first goal in a match, they are in the bottom ten in terms of points per game. They also have the joint-second lowest number of total goals scored in the entire MLS for games in which their opponents have drawn first blood.
Why is this? Well, one stat in particular is particularly revealing: FCC are 23rd out of 30 in the MLS this season for passes into the penalty area per 90 minutes. This emphasizes a sort of disconnect between the midfield and attack that is, if not comprehensive, noticeable, leading to the side often struggling to break down sitting defenses. Instead of trying to make piercing inroads in these situations, FCC find themselves, more often than not, relying on Evander’s ability to create something out of nothing in these situations. While this is not necessarily as bad of a tactic as it sounds given Evander’s previously mentioned hot streak of seismic proportions, it is still a concerning deferral for a side within tangential orbit of the supporter’s shield.
But all is not lost—this is a side with willing pressers in defense, midfield, and attack. Blitzing the opponent, and getting in their faces from the opening whistle, is a viable option, and is one that should be chosen. This is a team that has never been defeated when leading at halftime; it may be too late for FCC to climb over this recurring stumbling block, but it is never too late to find ways to skirt around it.
Facebook Comments