Six weeks ago in this space, I made the case that the Reds might still be buyers at the trade deadline. I called it a narrow path, and I held the football one more time like Lucy tempting Charlie Brown. You have to pick your chances to be optimistic with this franchise, and I felt like there was a real case. I still think I was correct at the time.
Now, with the trade deadline looming at 6 p.m. Monday, I really want to try to make that case again. The Reds have won three straight series since the All-Star break, going 6-3 on a nine-game road swing through Colorado, Seattle, and St. Louis. Elly De La Cruz has heated up. Hunter Greene is healthy. You know, if you squint, you can kinda see an opportunity here!
Of course, at some point you have to stop squinting and look at the actual numbers. The Reds are 49-55 and in last place in the National League Central, 16 games behind Milwaukee. They’re 4.5 games behind six different teams for the third and final Wild Card spot. Their playoff probability, depending on whose model you trust, hovers around 2 percent. The Rockies they beat in Colorado have the worst record in the National League, but Cincinnati’s remaining schedule is among the most difficult in the league.
Yeah, it hurts me to say it, but it’s time to wave the white flag on 2026. If the choice is between being buyers or sellers, I have to admit the answer is to sell. The more interesting question, to me, is how to execute the “sell” and what that even means to a club in Cincinnati’s situation.
If you’re a long-time reader, you know about my relationship with this front office. I’ve been documenting it in these digital pages for years. And that’s where the anxiety begins.
First things first: The Chase Burns extension signaled something very good. It’s the kind of commitment that serious franchises make—seven years, $105 million, no options, no deferrals. We now know what the future of this franchise is supposed to look like. Burns, Greene, and another All-Star, Andrew Abbott, at the front of the rotation, Elly at short, Sal Stewart in the lineup at one position or another. That’s a nucleus of young players as good as you’ll find in just about any big league city. It’s a reason to be excited about the future.
But that future has to start in 2027, not July 2026. (Well, it should have started in 2023, but that ship has sailed.) This team is not going anywhere this season, and anyone pretending otherwise is deluding themselves. But next year? Stewart will be 23, Burns will be 24, Elly will be 25, and Greene will be 27. That’s your core.
Anything the Reds do at this year’s trade deadline has to be with an eye on next April. They have some trade chips. Brady Singer has been the most reliable member of the rotation (other than Burns, of course) with a 2.92 ERA over the last two months. He’s in his final year of team control, and I expect that he would be popular among playoff contenders who need rotation depth.
Tyler Stephenson has been hot lately, he’s heading to free agency, and teams always seem to be chasing catchers. JJ Bleday has been one of the season’s bright spots and could interest teams looking for more than a rental—although, with two years of arbitration remaining, I wouldn’t mind seeing him stick around.
Spencer Steer was looking like a prime trade chip, but he’s now on the injured list. Eugenio Suarez might tempt a team looking for a power threat, but I wouldn’t bet the ranch on that happening.
All of those players should be available. Some of them will be moved. And though the Reds have one of the worst farm systems in baseball, they do have some minor league depth that they could send elsewhere at the deadline. Trade all the prospects, I say!
I know, I’m squinting again. I have little faith that Nick Krall and company can execute a trade deadline that sets the team up for success next year. This is the group that thought trading for Ke’Bryan Hayes and his fat contract was a good idea. The team that threw money at Jeimer Candelario, money that this “small market” franchise claims they don’t have. The team that took the opportunity of being in first place at the 2023 trade deadline and added just Sam Moll. Krall later said he had no regrets. I do.
Whatever the Reds do at the deadline, what comes back in these trades cannot be lottery tickets. Please, no more Single-A arms with upsides and too many question marks. I beg you: No more high-ceiling prospects who will need three years before we find out if they can ever help the big league club. If nothing else, this organization has demonstrated over and over and over again that it does not develop those players into big league contributors. The list of prospects that were supposed to arrive and help is long and depressing: Encarnacion-Strand, Marte, Hinds, McLain, Benson, and a half-dozen others who got the prospect-huggers excited but proceeded to flame out.
What the 2027 Reds need is a leadoff hitter who can get on base. They need an outfielder or two, preferably one who can play center field. They need a back of the bullpen arm or three. They need players who are ready now, or very nearly so. They don’t need any more prospects who are hypothetically useful in three years if everything breaks right. The Reds have proven that they can’t reliably convert hypothetical into actual. They need to go get players who are actually good and can produce at the big league level.
There is a version of this deadline that can set up 2027 as a season in which they’ll have a legitimate shot at the Central Division. I feel like I’m asking them to thread the needle. To be sure, I don’t think they can do it. This will require selling the right players, getting the right pieces back, and justifying the hope that the Burns extension gave to all of us.
I’ll believe it when I see it. I’ve been waiting a long, long time.
Chad Dotson helms Reds coverage at Cincinnati Magazine and is co-author of “The Big 50: The Men and Moments That Made the Cincinnati Reds.” His newsletter about Cincinnati sports can be found at chaddotson.com.
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