Let’s cast our gaze all the way back to March. It was a heady time around these parts, with Reds fans in a state of excitement and anticipation that we hadn’t seen in a decade, at least. There finally was some hope, remember?
Much of that hope was centered around the abundance of young infielders who made their debut last year and would be at manager David Bell’s disposal this season. Elly De La Cruz, Matt McLain, and Noelvi Marte (along with Christian Encarnacion-Strand) impressed immediately with their poise and production, and big things were expected in 2024. Elly, of course, has had a brilliant sophomore campaign that only raises expectations for the future. The others? Well, we now have more questions than we have answers.
There’s every reason to still be bullish about McLain’s future. He lost a full season of development to injury, and that’s not ideal. But he was already the most polished of this group of prospects and, presuming health, there’s no reason to suppose he won’t be an exciting second baseman next year and for years to come. I’m still firmly on The Matt McLain Hype Train. (Buy your tickets at a discount now!)
Noelvi Marte, well, that’s a different story entirely. His preseason hype was a result of his brilliant minor league numbers, his slash line in his first stab at the big leagues (.316/.366/.456 in 35 games last fall), and his status as one of the top prospects in baseball. Before the season, FanGraphs declared him Cincinnati’s top prospect and No. 41 in the entire game:
Marte projects as an everyday third baseman with a shot to be a more impactful player if he finds a way to get to his power more consistently. … While you can pick enough nits to stop short of calling Noelvi a future superstar, he’s still a well-rounded player who has more recently looked as engaged and agile on defense as ever.
Just a few short months ago, the sky was the limit for the kid. Marte was slated to be Cincinnati’s starting third baseman on Opening Day, and the Rookie of the Year buzz was getting louder—at least among Reds fans. Today, however, it’s difficult to imagine any player suffering through a worse sophomore season. Much of it, of course, was self-inflicted.
In March, Marte was suspended for 80 games after he tested positive for an anabolic steroid (boldenone) that’s banned by baseball. He was eligible to return to the majors on June 21; he actually returned on June 27, soon after a minor league stretch in which he posted a dismal line of .151/.151/.170 with zero homers in 12 games.
When Marte finally made his 2024 season debut, the Reds were six games under .500 and in desperate need of someone to help revive a struggling offense. Alas, things have continued to spiral for the young third sacker. After 57 games and 210 plate appearances, he’s hitting just .202/.243/.303 with four homers and a pathetic 49 adjusted OPS+. He has looked like a shadow of the dynamo we saw at the end of last season. It’s gotten so bad that utility player Santiago Espinal has largely taken over as the everyday third baseman.
This season is limping to a finish for the entire team, but it’s not too early to wonder what fans should expect from Marte next season. He’s still only 22 years old, which is far too young to abandon ship on a guy who was one of the better prospects in baseball a few short months ago. Before the 2022 season, Marte was a consensus top 15 prospect, and every outlet has considered him a surefire big league starter since he arrived on the professional baseball scene. He’s the real deal, right?
On the other hand, no one could have predicted just how bad Marte has looked this year in every facet of the game. We’ve already talked about his offensive woes, but he’s been equally as bad defensively and on the basepaths. It’s been a disaster of a year in every way. You’d be wise to remain skeptical until we see how he looks next spring. Perhaps literally.
FanGraphs’ prospect guru, Eric Longenhagen, noted earlier this year that his physical conditioning might be key: “Marte’s eval and forecast has already waxed and waned some,” Longenhagen wrote, “often in lockstep with his conditioning. At times he has looked heavy and haggard, though sometimes fatigue has been a reasonable explanation for this.” Marte should be well-rested by the time spring rolls around next year and will have the benefit of a full off-season to prepare—without PEDs, one would presume.
The upcoming off-season will be one in which the Reds are going to have to find answers to an increasing number of difficult questions. (So, like pretty much every off-season in recent years, I suppose.) Perhaps no player in the organization, however, will have more to prove in 2025 than Noelvi Marte. Stay tuned.
Chad Dotson helms Reds coverage at Cincinnati Magazine and hosts a long-running Reds podcast, The Riverfront. His newsletter about Cincinnati sports can be found at chaddotson.com. He’s @dotsonc on Twitter.
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