World Cup 2026 Favorites, Dark Horses and Players to Watch

Here are my picks to win it all and to surprise, as well as five players to watch closely.
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The largest men’s World Cup yet—in terms of qualified teams and extortionate ticket prices—begins a week from today across North America. A few (FC) Cincinnati-related items: The closest match will be more than 450 miles away in Atlanta, which just flat-out sucks for a soccer-crazed city like ours. Miles Robinson became the first active FC Cincinnati player to be named to a World Cup roster. Pavel Bucha was selected to Czechia’s provisional roster, but did not make the final 26-man roster. (Their loss!)

Now, my overall World Cup thoughts.


The Favorites

Per oddsmakers (exact numbers vary from site to site), these seven squads, in order, stand the best chance of lifting the underwhelmingly named FIFA World Cup Trophy: Spain, France, England, Brazil, Argentina, Portugal, and Germany. Apart from England, which hasn’t won a major trophy since 1966, each of those countries has captured major silverware since at least the turn of the century. Portugal is the only team that hasn’t attained World Cup glory in this group.

Out of the 22 men’s World Cups, only eight countries have won! (Still crazy to me.) Spain became the eighth different nation in 2010. In 2026, I’m banking on Portugal becoming the ninth. Here’s why: The Seleção das Quinas have stars everywhere.

I’ll begin with the world-class midfield. Talisman Bruno Fernandes just set the English Premier League single-season assist record, and João Neves and Vitinha are the talented and tireless beating heart of Paris Saint-Germain’s back-to-back Champions League-winning side. Nuno Mendes, the world’s best left back, is a Ferrari on grass. Bernardo Silva is a positionless savant who was so beloved by now-former Manchester City manager Pep Guardiola that it wouldn’t shock me if Silva made it into Guardiola’s will. Rafael Leao and Pedro Neto are terrors on the wing. Ruben Dias is a rock at center back. Diogo Costa is one of the world’s best goalkeepers. There’s depth at every position.

I just wish 41-year-old Cristiano Ronaldo wasn’t starting at striker.

Surprise Team

In 2022, Morocco became the first African nation to reach the semifinal round. In 2018, Croatia advanced to the final for the first time. In 2014, Costa Rica shockingly won a group with England, Italy and Uruguay, and made the quarterfinal for the first time. A dark horse emerges each World Cup.

This year, I’m taking Ecuador to reach the quarterfinals for the first time. The defense conceded a miniscule five goals in 18 qualifying matches. They will have strong traveling support while navigating Group E, whose favorite is a frankly underwhelming Germany.

5 Players to Watch

Lamine Yamal. Capable of navigating even the most stubborn parked buses with his litany of feints and tricks, the 18-year-old could become the youngest winner of the Ballon D’Or—awarded annually to the world’s top footballer—by piloting Spain to the title.

Neymar. The Neymar-to-FC Cincinnati whispers haven’t been quashed yet by the Brazilian’s camp or the Orange and Blue. On the pitch, he enters the World Cup as a bit player, a strange occurrence for the Seleção’s all-time leading scorer. The oft-injured attacker has already picked up a calf problem, making a signature World Cup moment a player of his stature deserves even unlikelier.

Harry Kane. England will be solid and dogged defensively. But will the Three Lions come out of their shell enough to give attacking help to the author of more than 500 goals for club and country? England has more than enough talent to win their first major trophy since King Charles was a teenager

Emiliano Martinez. There’s no goalkeeper you’d rather have during a knockout game, particularly if a penalty shootout is in the offing. The 6-foot-5 Argentine matches histrionics with a big-game flair.

Gilberto Mora. The tournament’s youngest player is a 17-year-old Mexican midfielder. Many fancy El Tri’s chances given their homefield advantage, but any late-stage knockout advancement will hinge on Mora’s impact.


Next week, I’ll dive deeper into the U.S. Men’s National Team, the players who will make or break their chances, and realistic expectations. The Americans open Group D play on June 12 vs. Paraguay at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles. (Cue a collective groan from USMNT fans who also double as Bengals supporters.)

Grant Freking is in his eighth year of FC Cincinnati coverage for Cincinnati Magazine.

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