Former Reds manager Davey Johnson passed away last week at the age of 92. To me, he remains the Reds’ best dugout boss since Sparky Anderson. He was tactically sharp and led what may have been the last great Reds team, undeterred by the (Marge Schott-caused) chaos swirling around him.
Johnson’s 1995 club remains the last Reds team to win a postseason series, and his résumé—already gilded elsewhere—sparkles even brighter when you look at the managerial ranks that followed him during Cincinnati’s Great American Ball Park years.
Also last week, the Reds dedicated a statue to legendary broadcaster Marty Brennaman, the voice who taught Cincinnati how a win sounds way back in the long-forgotten good ol’ days. He had opinions, because Marty always has opinions, and he offered an assessment recently of the 2025 Reds that doubled as a referendum on the present manager. “Had anybody else been managing the team this year,” he said, the Reds “would’ve been out of playoff position a month and a half ago.”
That’s a bold take, but is it correct? Given Johnson’s passing, my first thought is to examine where Francona actually stacks up against Reds managers from recent years. I’m not going to go down that particular rabbit hole at this moment, but has Tito actually moved the needle for the Reds this year?
Let’s start with the facts. Cincinnati sits 72–72 this morning, four games behind the Mets for the final wild card with 18 to play. The Giants have jumped the Reds and are now three games behind New York. Cincinnati’s run profile says they should be better: a +29 differential (650 runs scored, 621 allowed) translates to a Pythagorean record of 75–69. Judging a manager’s performance can be difficult, obviously, but this is one data point that says the Reds have underperformed under Francona’s leadership.
That’s where I struggle to reconcile Francona’s reputation with what I’ve seen on the field this year. The case for Tito is familiar:
Culture and calm. Francona comes with an incredible pedigree that’s nearly unimpeachable: two World Series rings and three-time winner of the American League Manager of the Year award. All season long, his message has seemed to be consistent: Don’t flinch, keep playing, fix the next pitch. That steadiness has value on a young team that’s seeking an identity.
Bullpen triage. This is one area in which Francona’s critics seem to underrate his performance. The Reds have cycled through roles and workloads while their middle relief frayed and starters hit the IL. He’s kept the pitching staff together somehow, including a bullpen that features precisely zero arms you would have bet the ranch on coming into the season.
Buy-in. Even after the gut-punch loss on Friday, they took two of three from the Mets over the weekend. That’s not nothing in a clubhouse that looked like a morgue 48 hours earlier. You have to consider that this roster seems to have bought into whatever Francona is selling.
The case against? (I asked this question on X, and the responses were not particularly precise.)
The coin-flip innings haven’t flipped. Cincinnati has given away so much around the margins. They’re 3–11 in extra innings, including last night’s loss, and it seems like the season has been marked by unproductive runners on the bases and defensive miscues around the diamond at precisely the wrong time. The manager has to take some blame there, right? And don’t get me started with all those bunts that have given free outs to the opposition.
Tactical second-guessing. This is the job from the public’s perspective. Francona’s lineup constructions have often been hilariously bad, underestimating the value of power vs. small ball. But even given his preference for small ball, Tito has been far less aggressive on the bases than he should have been. That combo has been a disaster for this offense. And again (Jerry Seinfeld voice) what’s with all the bunting? Are we back in 1984 all of a sudden?
Santiago Espinal and Will Benson. Why is Francona so desperately in love with Espinal, who has a good glove but has failed the Reds over and over again at the plate? Similarly, why does Tito refuse to use Benson, especially in spots where he can help the lineup? I don’t get it.
You can make your own decision about Francona’s impact on this year’s team, but this needs to be said: If you’re assigning shares of blame for the club’s underperformance relative to Pythag, you stop at ownership’s door before you reach the manager’s office. Marty himself said the Reds needed a veteran middle-of-the-order bopper to protect a young lineup; Cincinnati never even tried to land one.
So, does Brennaman’s point about Francona actually stand up to scrutiny? I’m not so sure. What did the Magic 8-Ball say? “Reply hazy, try again.” We may not have an actual answer as to Francona’s continued viability as a big league manager until we have more data.
At this point, though, what do we do with Cincinnati’s dying-but-not-dead pennant hopes? Well, I guess we need to start by admitting that they still exist. The Reds may be on a ventilator, but the standings say they remain alive. These last three weeks will be interesting, if nothing else. The Reds are still alive! Given recent history, that’s something.
Which loops us back to Johnson. He took a talented, imperfect 1995 Reds team, filtered out the distractions, and made October feel inevitable all season long. I was there, trust me on this one. Francona’s charge is more modest: With an expanded playoffs, the Reds need only to be competent on a routine basis. They haven’t been competent often enough to truly be competitive in this playoff race, though there are 18 games remaining. I want to believe there’s still a chance.
Francona may have a better Hall of Fame resume than Davey Johnson but, so far, his Reds career has paled in comparison. I would like nothing more than for him to make a mad dash in the last three weeks in the direction of Cincinnati immortality.
The sad truth is that it takes just one playoff appearance for Reds fans to remember you fondly forever. Let’s do this, Tito.
Chad Dotson helms Reds coverage at Cincinnati Magazine and is co-author of “The Big 50: The Men and Moments That Made the Cincinnati Reds,” revised, updated, and available in bookstores now. His newsletter about Cincinnati sports can be found at chaddotson.com.
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