If you remember—and I know you will, Devoted Reader—I mentioned last week that the Redlegs were about to embark on a crucial 38-game stretch that includes nine games against last year’s World Series teams (Arizona and Texas) plus 11 games against the Dodgers and Phillies. We’re now one week into that portion of the schedule, with Cincinnati splitting a four-game series against the 2022 National League pennant winner Philadelphia and losing two of three in Texas against the defending champion Rangers. Time to take stock of where we are.
Let’s start here: Losing four of seven games in a week is not ideal. If the Reds repeat that week after week, we’re in for a bad time. On the other hand, Cincinnati went toe to toe with two of the better teams in the majors and emerged with a boatload of reasons to be optimistic about the rest of 2024.
Perhaps the biggest of those reasons is the pitching, whose depth is being tested with the recent injury to Opening Day starter Frankie Montas. By and large, with a couple of exceptions, the starting rotation has been outstanding. The most encouraging development comes in the form of Hunter Greene, who gave us a glimpse in his next to last start of a more efficient hurler, as he finally went seven innings in a game without throwing 100 pitches (though he did surrender four runs). Greene picked up his first win of the season on Saturday in his best performance by far, again throwing seven innings with fewer than 100 pitches, but this time he gave up only one hit and no runs striking out six while walking just one.
Equally as exciting for Reds fans was Graham Ashcraft’s performance in a narrow 2-1 defeat to Texas last Friday. He was efficient (89 pitches) and on-target (no walks), reaching the seventh inning while allowing just one run in a pitchers’ duel with the Rangers’ Nathan Eovaldi. Ashcraft is now 3-1 with a 4.40 ERA, perfectly cromulent numbers for a fourth or fifth starter.
Nick Lodolo had his worst start of the season in Wednesday’s 7-4 win over Philly, but it wasn’t horrific: three runs allowed in five innings. He’s still 2-0 with a 2.12 ERA over his first three starts. That’ll do. Fellow lefty Andrew Abbott took a no-decision in a win over Philadelphia and a loss in Sunday’s series-decider against the Rangers, but he continues to show promise: In six starts so far, he has a 3.27 ERA. Again, that’ll do.
The downside? Swing-man Nick Martinez, in his return to the starting rotation, looked like a guy who’s better suited to the bullpen (as I suspected would be the case). He threw six innings but gave up all five runs (plus 11 hits) in a 5-0 loss to the Phillies. Certainly, the club will be stronger if arms can get healthy—I’m looking at you, Montas and Brandon Williamson—and Martinez can return to the pen full-time, but it should be noted that Cincinnati’s relievers have the fourth-best ERA (3.75) in the NL to this point, notwithstanding caveats about small-sample-size. So far so good.
On the offensive side of the ledger, reviews were mixed. The bats were shut out in both losses to the Phillies, but Cincinnati did score 27 runs in the five other games last week. Elly De La Cruz and Spencer Steer have been the most productive bats so far this season, but in recent days the Reds have seen a couple of names from the previous wave of prospects begin to reassert themselves. Jonathan India has eight hits in his last 12 plate appearances, and his season on-base-percentage is up to .353. Meanwhile, catcher Tyler Stephenson looks like a different player all of a sudden. His walk rate is a career-best, and that selectiveness at the plate seems to have resulted in a hitter who is mashing the ball at an unprecedented rate (for him).
If you don’t know the specific definition of “barrels” as a Statcast measure, you can find the definition here. Short version for those of you who never played past Little League: how often does a hitter get the barrel on the ball? Only two players in all of baseball thus far in 2024 are squaring the ball up better than Stephenson: perennial All-Stars Shohei Ohtani and Salvador Perez. Stephenson’s average exit velocity (93.4 mph) is one of the best in either league, and his hard hit percentage (57.1) is in the top 3 percent of all hitters.
The flip side of that coin is that Jeimer Candelario, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, and Nick Martini—all players who are in the lineup more often than not—have been embarrassingly bad at the plate to this point, along with primary bench players Santiago Espinal, Stuart Fairchild, and Bubba Thompson. I have little doubt that Candelario and CES will hit their stride soon, but despite their struggles the Reds are in the middle of the pack (seventh of 15 NL teams) in runs scored through 28 games. With TJ Friedl (scheduled to begin a minor-league rehab assignment with Triple-A Louisville this week) hopefully returning soon, that offense should get another boost.
As we stand, the Redlegs are two games above .500, on pace for an 87-win season that would almost assuredly be enough for a playoff berth. Fully 134 games remain, so it’s far too soon to make any grand declarations about where this team will go over the next five months. But with the pitching looking good thus far and with reason to believe the hitting should improve in the coming weeks—not to mention that Cincinnati mostly looked the part against a couple of the better teams in baseball in recent days—I continue to maintain that Reds fans should be optimistic.
As you know, Devoted Reader, Reds-related optimism is not something I always recommend. Enjoy, friends!
Chad Dotson helms Reds coverage at Cincinnati Magazine and hosts a long-running Reds podcast, The Riverfront. His newsletter about Cincinnati sports can be found at chaddotson.com. He’s @dotsonc on Twitter.
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