Halfway through the 2025 season, there are still more questions than answers with this Cincinnati Reds team. It’s hard to project expectations for inconsistent hitters like Matt McLain, Jake Fraley, Will Benson, and Spencer Steer. Austin Hays and Hunter Greene need to be healthier over the second half of the season. Prospect Chase Burns is getting called up to the big leagues and is being counted on immediately.
The Reds are very much in the mix for a playoff spot. The next month is critical, and it will impact the Reds’ approach in 2025, 2026, and 2027. If the month proves that this team is worth investing in through win-now moves at the trade deadline, then the Reds could become as aggressive as they’ve been since 2020. The possibility also exists that they fall off over the next month and become sellers at the deadline.
There’s a wide range of outcomes, which places a bright spotlight on a few players in particular. The first is Burns, who fills a critical need in the rotation at just 22 years old. Over the last decade, only three first-round picks have made 10-plus starts in their first year of pro ball. Burns is set to join that group.
The Reds’ bullpen has been taxed over the last few weeks. The starting rotation depth has been decimated by injuries. Burns is ready for the big leagues, but the Reds aren’t giving him a soft landing. He’ll debut against the New York Yankees, and he joins the team during the toughest stretch of the schedule all year.
The Reds are counting on McLain to build on the momentum that he’s established lately, hitting .340 over his last 15 games. Reds manager Terry Francona rewarded that hot stretch by moving McLain back up to the No. 2 spot in the lineup. The most glaring flaw on the Reds’ roster has been the need for an impact bat between TJ Friedl and Elly De La Cruz in the lineup. The plan was for McLain to be that guy, and he’s getting another shot in that role. He went 0-for-2 with a run scored in last night’s victory over the Yankees.
If McLain, Fraley, Benson, and Steer build on some recent promising stretches, if Burns hits the ground running, and if the pitching staff stabilizes, the Reds have the ability to pursue pieces at the deadline that could take them over the top. A power hitting outfield bat, high-leverage relievers, and a fifth starter could all be on their wishlist.
The Reds barely did anything at the deadline in 2021 and 2023 when the team was in the mix, but a strong month of July could set them up to make a more aggressive push. Also, what the Reds learn about some of their role players over the next month could impact what positions they decide to target at the deadline.
This season also could go the other way. While most of the lineup is trending in the right direction, it’s still a group of young hitters that’s been inconsistent all season. The pitching depth is razor thin, and the bullpen is wearing down. If the Reds go on a slide over the next month, they could turn into sellers like they were in 2024. But unlike last season, the 2025 Reds have more key pieces on expiring contracts. Nick Martinez, Hays, and Emilio Pagán would represent more aggressive “sell” moves than the Reds did last season.
Over the next month, the Reds also have to lock in on what window they’re chasing. Is it this year, 2026, or 2027 and beyond? Do they make a bigger all-in push? Do they shuffle their chips over to next year when this group is a year older? Or do they recognize that this group is further away from contention, needs more help and adds prospects at the deadline next month? Looking at the long-term picture, the potential for an MLB lockout in 2027 also looms.
That decision will likely be impacted by where the Reds are at in the standings at this point a month from now. Promoting Burns after just 13 minor league starts shows the importance of this upcoming stretch for the Reds. Calling him up signals that it’s “go time” for the 2025 Reds to figure out what they’re going to be. While he still has plenty of room to develop, he also gives the Reds their best chance to win every fifth day.
Burns will debut tonight with plenty of expectations and hype surrounding him. It’s a lot like what Elly De La Cruz experienced in June 2023 when the shortstop immediately became one of the most important pieces on a team that was fighting for a playoff spot.
It’ll be a crucial deadline as the Reds figure out how they’re building around the core they have in place. Before the front office finalizes those calls, though, they have more games to win.
Charlie Goldsmith has covered the Reds and Bengals since 2020, and his newsletter on the teams can be found at charlieschalkboard.substack.com. He’s @CharlieG__ on X.
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