Think back, if you will, to mid-January. It was a simpler time. The Bengals were making another run to the conference championship. Cincinnati’s baseball nine were recovering from a 100-loss season, and Reds President Phil Castellini—in the latest instance of sticking his foot squarely in his mouth—made a presentation that named the Reds one of the big league clubs on a list of “Teams out of contention by Opening Day.”
Fast forward to April. General Manager Nick Krall had steadfastly refused to improve the pitching staff in the off-season, resulting in an Opening Day roster with only three legitimate big league hurlers. Then, in a turn of events that surprised no one, the Reds started the season 7-15, culminating in a four-game sweep at the hands of the Pirates that saw Cincinnati score just six runs. Was another 100-loss season on the horizon?
If you had told literally anyone outside the Cincinnati clubhouse at that precise moment that the Reds would be in playoff contention until the next-to-last game of the season, you would have been looked upon as an inveterate dreamer with a tenuous grasp on reality. But baseball is a weird sport.
The Reds proceeded to win five in a row, including a sweep of the Rangers (who went on to win their division) that featured two walk-off wins. That was the canary in the coal mine. In mid-May, shortstop prospect Matt McLain was called up from Triple-A Louisville. He was followed by a series of hot-shot kids, including Elly De La Cruz and Andrew Abbott. (In all, 16 players would make their big league debuts this season.)
All of a sudden, the Reds were one of MLB’s most exciting and entertaining teams. They reeled off 12 consecutive victories and climbed back to .500 by mid-June, and they sat atop the division for the first time on June 19. By the first week of July, the Runnin’ Redlegs were 10 games over .500 and two games ahead of their nearest competitor in the NL Central.
At the trade deadline, the Reds were in first place, a game and a half up. And that’s when things took a turn. Krall declined once again to improve the pitching staff, and the Reds went 10-17 in August. They fell from first place to third in the span of less than two months, finishing a distant 10 games behind Milwaukee. But the Redlegs kept battling, kept believing, and stuck around in the race for longer than anyone would have guessed. They missed a wild card spot by two games.
Cincinnati finished 82-80, which has to be considered a resounding success. So what’s next? There are four big questions facing this franchise in the coming months.
Does Joey Votto have a future in Cincinnati?
The first big decision of the off-season will be due shortly after the World Series ends. The Reds have a team option on Votto’s contract, which would require them to pay him $20 million for 2024. If they decline that option, they’d have to pay him a $7 million buyout.
You know where I stand on this question: Pick up the option, you cowards! If the Reds decline the option, they could still attempt to negotiate with Votto to bring him back, assuming he wants to return.
Some of you will scream that Votto is too expensive to bring back at age 40, especially since he would almost certainly be in a diminished role. But you’re wrong. Let me be clear: Money should not be an obstacle for any decision the Reds make this off-season. Oh sure, the Castellinis of the world will try to convince you otherwise. Don’t believe the hype.
Ownership spent almost nothing on this year’s team. They have literally one player signed to a contract for 2024. They’re coming off a season in which attendance increased year-to-year more than any other team in baseball. Bally Sports ended up paying out their full contract to broadcast Reds games.
This ownership group is not poor. They may choose not to improve the team, but don’t let them tell you it’s because they can’t afford it.
And, by the way, Votto was a league average hitter this year, despite the injuries. He can still help this club.
What to do with Jonathan India?
I’m a big fan of India. He brings an energy and an enthusiasm and a gorgeous head of hair that makes him easy to root for. He can also hit a little, and I expect him to have a pretty good big league career. I’m just not sure it’ll be in Cincinnati.
Besides first base, there are only three spots available on the infield. Of the four primary contenders for those spots on the current roster (India, McLain, De La Cruz, Noelvi Marte), India is almost certainly the worst defensively and offensively. That doesn’t mean he’s a bad player—he isn’t! But it does mean that he’s about to get squeezed out.
Can India play outfield? Can he hit well enough to be a designated hitter? Will he be willing to share time at 2B and 3B while also playing DH occasionally?
All good questions that Krall will have to answer. As things stand, I don’t see a future for India in Cincinnati. He’s very likely to be a trade chip this off-season.
Will the Reds “get the pitching?”
Prior to the 2019 season, Bob Castellini famously promised to “get the pitching.” They acquired Tanner Roark, Alex Wood, Zach Duke, and Sonny Gray. Gray and Roark panned out, and adding them to Luis Castillo, Tyler Mahle, and Anthony DeSclafani gave the Reds a pretty good rotation for a short while.
Five years later, it’s time to get the pitching once again. Even after fading down the stretch, Cincinnati’s offense this year was arguably above league average—ninth in the majors in runs scored and team wOBA (.325), but their 98 wRC+ was 17th—and that’s with a bunch of kiddos in the lineup. It’s not unreasonable to expect the lineup to be better next season, even with no additions (though another outfielder and more depth would be welcome).
The pitching, however, is another story. Cincinnati’s staff was 25th in the league in ERA. The starters had a 5.43 ERA; only Oakland and Colorado were worse. Rookie pitchers made 61 starts, including 19 of the final 27. To be sure, there are some decent bets among the pitchers Cincinnati currently has in the system. Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, and Graham Ashcraft are solid. Greene, in particular, has the ability to be among the very best hurlers in all of baseball. Rookies we saw this season such as Abbott, Brandon Williamson, and Connor Phillips have real potential.
However, if you believe—as some silly kids on twitter dot com have claimed in recent days—that this group is enough to get the Reds through an entire season, you are delusional. Pitching is unpredictable, and injuries occur; just ask Greene, Lodolo, and Ashcraft. The Reds need at least two more starters to avoid the depth problems we saw this season. And a couple more dependable relievers would be ideal as well.
Can Nick Krall finish the job?
Krall, recently promoted to President of Baseball Operations, has done a good job recently in identifying talented young players and trading for them (by giving up similarly talented assets). The player development team has done well in preparing them for the big leagues. Krall and Co. deserve kudos.
But can the front office take the next step and build an actual winner? Most of Krall’s free agent acquisitions have been a disappointment. He was certainly unable or unwilling to make any deals to improve pitching depth either before the 2023 season or at the trade deadline, despite knowledge that this was a clear area in which the Reds needed to improve. The result was a first place team at the trade deadline that predictably faltered down the stretch.
The Reds may never have more financial flexibility than they have right now. They will never have a more talented young core at the big league level. Now is the time to strike, while the proverbial iron is red-hot. (I would argue that the trade deadline was the first time to strike, but that ship has sailed.) This off-season will be a real test of Krall’s ability.
The future can be bright, if the Reds make the right moves. Unfortunately, I have to agree with my friend Wick Terrell:
It may never get any easier for them than in 2023, either. This was a season in which neither New York club made the playoffs, nor did the Boston Red Sox or St. Louis Cardinals. That’s four perennial spenders and winners who won’t take this offseason, or next year, off to rebuild—they’ll be active and spending and getting better by the minute, with Boston having already canned their GM for their foibles. The San Francisco Giants are not sitting idle after failing this year, either, as they already fired their manager.
The big market clubs are going to be big marketing with aplomb this winter, and the Reds will be tasked with improving within them.
Cincinnati won’t be playing any more baseball games, but the next six months could be the most important stretch in recent Reds history. Will the franchise build upon the incredible successes of the 2023 season? Or will they disappoint us as they have nearly every off-season of this millennium?
Your guess is as good as mine. But I couldn’t be more excited to see how it plays out.
Chad Dotson helms Reds coverage at Cincinnati Magazine and hosts a long-running Reds podcast, The Riverfront. His newsletter about Cincinnati sports can be found at chaddotson.com. He’s @dotsonc on Twitter.
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